Explaining Recent Tendency for Stalled U.S. Coastal Tropical Cyclones

Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) AND La Nina Increases Risk of Stronger La Nina Climate AND La Nina Lingering Into Next Year
05/25/2020, 10:17 am EDT
AG Research: Persistent 2007-19 –NAO Pattern During Summer May Reverse for Summer 2020
06/12/2020, 1:41 pm EDT
Show all

Important to seasonal prediction of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is the evolution in recent years of the North Atlantic Warm Hole and the attendant upper air pattern. During the tropical cyclone season a persistent upper level trough has formed in the cooler atmosphere across the NAWH compensated for by a persistent upper ridge over Quebec (and vicinity). When the upper ridge is present as tropical cyclones go inland the U.S. coastline storms slow down and produce excessive rainfall similar to Harvey (2017), Florence (2018) and Imelda (2019). A similar dynamic is expected for AUG/SEP 2020.

Please login to view this content.