Charts of the day: The 7-day forecast.
Discussion: An intense upper-level low-pressure system rolls across Southern Europe spawning heavy to extreme rainfall across the Mediterranean Sea and into Southeast Europe. Trailing the storms is widespread cool-to-cold weather across Spain to France which is spreading eastward.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 30-February 6, 2023: Southern Europe is chilly; stormy Germany/Poland to Black Sea region.
Discussion: Early in the period, a longwave upper trough stretches north-to-south across East-central Europe and into the Mediterranean Sea shifting to the Black Sea late in the period. Early period rain and snow across Germany/Poland and the Baltic region shifts to the Black Sea region mid-to-late period. Interestingly, the coolest anomalies are across Southern Europe while Northwest Russia stays mild.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 6-13, 2023: North Atlantic storm track across Central Europe; Mild influence.
Discussion: ECMWF projects the North Atlantic storm track extending eastward across Central Europe, a mild (marine) influence.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 13-20, 2023: Drier pattern; temperate Southern Europe.
Discussion: The outlook is somewhat drier and cools to near normal across Southern Europe. Northwest Eurasia remains warmer than normal.