Watching Northwest/North Brazil Second Corn Crop for Drought Risk

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01/30/2023, 4:40 am EST
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Highlight: Argentina soybeans affected by patchy rain; The 6-10-day forecast is drier. Watching northwest/north Brazil second corn crop for drought risk.

Fig. 1-2: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis and the deep layer soil moisture deficits across Northern Argentina.

South America discussion: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals erosion of the Argentina drought on the southern side of the affected area (Fig. 1). Recent rainfall has been impressive in that zone. However, farther northward, the remainder of the Argentina drought area remains intact. A new area of drought concern is across the northwest and north Brazil Second Corn Crop zone. Deep layer soil moisture deficits have increased in the heart of the Argentina drought zone (Fig. 2).

Today’s 15-day outlook indicates several important observations. First, the 5-day forecast indicates a wetter trend and excessive rainfall (4 in.) for a small portion of the northwest soybean-growing area (Fig. 3). Northeast Argentina remains very hot during this time. Second, the 6-10-day period shifts much drier in the core of the Argentina drought area (Fig. 4). At that time, Paraguay to Southeast Brazil trend wetter. Note the general dryness across the north/northwest second corn crop region in Brazil. Third, the GFS is on its own with a wetter scenario due to patchy thunderstorms in the central and northeast Argentina soybean areas (Fig. 5). Once again, the north and northwest Brazil second corn crop region is dry.

Fig. 3-5: GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for South America.