Global Crop Areas Susceptible to Drought

Big Warm-up Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat
05/03/2021, 12:20 pm EDT
Indian Ocean Dipole Forecast Update
05/11/2021, 7:59 am EDT
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Highlight: Soil moisture deficit areas for crops and the SSTA forecast for June which will determine the middle third of 2021 climate pattern.

Fig. 1: Global crop areas at risk by regional drought conditions.

Soil discussion:  The Americas are indicating their greatest exposure to drought in crop areas in the NOAA daily global soil moisture anomaly analysis (Fig. 1). Areas at risk include Canadian and U.S. spring wheat, the northern U.S. corn-growing region and far southwest Great Plains wheat zone. In South America a major Brazilian drought is affecting their second corn crop, wheat and soybeans. There is limited exposure to drought risk (for now) across Eurasia and Australian dryness is away from crop areas.

Fig. 2: IMME model projection of global SSTA for June 2021.

SSTA discussion:  The International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) global SSTA forecast for June identifies the primary influence on climate forecasts into mid-2021 (Fig. 2). Large regions of warm/cool SSTA are mirrors of the prevailing atmospheric conditions above and leading indicators of the climate pattern ahead. Note that the “warm blobs” in the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic are the stand-out SSTA regions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) are neutral. Climate Impact Company is in the process of determining the influence of these vast warm SSTA regions on the middle third of 2021 climate pattern for northern hemisphere crop regions. The report will be issued by late this week.