Saharan Dust Continues an Inhibiting Factor on Tropics
But! Mid-level RH is increasing!
Fig. 1: Latest CAMS model identifying Saharan Dust intensity across the tropical North Atlantic.
Discussion: Saharan dust remains intense in its source region with waves of fallout emitted westward in pulses lowering to moderate intensity across the tropical North Atlantic basin (Fig. 1). The dust clouds remain an inhibiting factor on tropical development. Normally, seasonality eases this issue. We signs of that already. One of the leading predictors of tropical cyclone activity is the amount of moisture at mid-levels of the troposphere. At 600 MB the available moisture is buoyant for many sectors of the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics and likely to increase (Fig. 2). The last third of August should bring a significant uptick in TC activity.
Fig. 2: The available moisture at 600 MB (mid-level troposphere) is an excellent predictor of tropical cyclone potential.