Europe Heat Wave Ahead

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06/24/2019, 10:26 am EDT
Unexpected: Cooling of Both the Tropical East Pacific/North Atlantic
07/06/2019, 5:16 pm EDT
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An amplified upper ridge crests over Central Europe this week causing extreme heat likely to break records and centered mostly on Spain and France where temperatures will exceed 100F. The peak strength of the heat wave is later this week. The heat begins to ease next Tuesday.

Big Heat Wave Europe Ahead

Peak is THU/FRI with France/Spain hardest hit

Extreme heat eases beginning Tuesday next week

Discussion: In 2013 a large unexplained region of very warm water emerged in the Northeast Pacific given the name “warm blob” by climate scientists. The “warm blob” caused the air aloft to warm leading to a high pressure ridge affecting western North America during winter 2013-14/2014-15 with the downstream “polar vortex” pattern made popular each winter by the historical snow and cold in the East U.S.

At the same time – and less discussed by the climate science community – was emergence of a cool pool of water south of Greenland. The cool pool was striking given the general warm North Atlantic since the late 1990’s. The cool pool has been most vividly present during the warm season and for most of the past 6 summer seasons has caused an upper low pressure trough to hover over the North Atlantic while downstream an upper ridge has caused heat waves and drought over Europe. That pattern emerges this week across Europe.

The Canadian Ensemble indicates France is a robust 15F above normal over the next 7 days. The intense heat affects Spain to Poland! Some of the extreme days begin today with 90-95 in Spain, France and Germany. 100 appears tomorrow in the south of France! Widespread 100 emerges Spain and France on Thursday/Friday. Widespread 90’s is likely to continue into next week from Spain to Eastern Europe. Showers appear next Tuesday to begin easing the heat.

Fig. 1-2: The Canadian Ensemble depicts the day 1-7 temperature anomalies across Europe featuring a departure of +15F over France. The heat is caused by an amplified upper ridge pattern over Central Europe.