Cold Weather Watch Importance Increases Given Continued Covid Risk

Stratospheric Warming Indicated Northwest North America In 15 Days
11/24/2021, 8:39 am EST
Connecting Regional SSTA With Brazil/Argentina and Australia 15-Day Rainfall Outlooks
11/29/2021, 5:13 am EST
Show all

Discussion: The 15-day temperature outlook across Europe is colder than normal across Central Europe and very cold Northern Europe (Fig. 1) due to increasing snow cover (Fig. 2). The ICON snowfall forecast into early next week is a “potential” forecast but certainly evolving snow cover is expected which enhances the developing cold risk. The Scandinavia Index indicates the most negative signature is centered on the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3) when Europe cold is most widespread and snow cover likely expands. The persistent developing cold weather increases Covid-19 infection spread.

Fig. 1-2: The GFS OP Day 1-15 temperature anomaly forecast across Europe and 108-hour snowfall forecast by the ICON model for Europe.

Fig. 3: Super negative phase of the Scandinavia Index centered on the 6-10-day period identifies a cold upper low-pressure trough centered on the Baltic region.