Cold Weather Watch Importance Increases Given Continued Covid Risk

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Given the tendency for Covid-19 spread with established cold weather regimes in high population areas the importance of cold weather monitoring has (of course) increased. The 15-day outlook for Europe identifies an established cold weather risk which could be enhanced by developing snow cover and supported by a super negative Scandinavia Index pattern centered on days 6-10 ahead!

Discussion: The 15-day temperature outlook across Europe is colder than normal across Central Europe and very cold Northern Europe (Fig. 1) due to increasing snow cover (Fig. 2). The ICON snowfall forecast into early next week is a “potential” forecast but certainly evolving snow cover is expected which enhances the developing cold risk. The Scandinavia Index indicates the most negative signature is centered on the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3) when Europe cold is most widespread and snow cover likely expands. The persistent developing cold weather increases Covid-19 infection spread.

Fig. 1-2: The GFS OP Day 1-15 temperature anomaly forecast across Europe and 108-hour snowfall forecast by the ICON model for Europe.

Fig. 3: Super negative phase of the Scandinavia Index centered on the 6-10-day period identifies a cold upper low-pressure trough centered on the Baltic region.