California/Southwest U.S. & Great Plains Super Heat Event This Week

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A high-pressure cell over the Southwest U.S. this week strengthens to rare 6000 DM at 500 MB propelling widespread historic heat across the Southwest U.S., California and pulsing into the Great Plains and reaching western Texas by next weekend. Searing and extremely dangerous heat is caused by this super high-pressure cell.

Discussion: A string of record hot days will occur in California and across the Southwest U.S. this week. Beginning in Phoenix, ensembles indicate maximum temperature in the 117-119F range for MON-FRI. Record maximum for each day is in the 114-115F range. Shifting to Fresno, CA ensembles indicate maximum temperature of 109-111F for THU/FRI later this week. Record maximum temperature for each day is in the 107-109F range. In Burbank, CA the super-heat is just inland and most of the week stays in the 92-98F range (normal is 80F). Farther to the north, Redding, CA can expect 105-114F beginning Wednesday peaking on THU/FRI. Record maximum temperatures are in the 108-110F range.

Other extreme heat targets include eastern Montana on Tuesday. Glasgow, MT should reach 104F edging-out the all-time record of 102F. Southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas produce record 102F Wednesday. Wichita, KS challenges an all-time record of 104F on Thursday. By June 21-22, western Texas surges to 108-113F according to ECM.

Based on the GFS, tracking the heat wave core and migration areas beginning Tuesday for this week (Fig. 1-4) plus the searing heat for western Texas June 21st by ECM (Fig. 5) are indicated:

Fig. 1: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Tuesday.

Fig. 2: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Wednesday.

Fig. 3: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Thursday.

Fig. 4: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Friday.

Fig. 5: ECM maximum temperature forecasts for June 21.