Highlight: Winter 2021-22 cold peak Northeast U.S. early next week! Big storm follows for Central and East mid-to-late next week. California heat through the weekend.
Fig. 1-2: ECM indicates a frigid air mass into the Northeast to start next week. Indicated are the morning low temperature forecasts for Monday and Tuesday morning.
Discussion: Alberta Clippers rule this week into early next week and trailing each episode the following air masses trend colder. ECM indicates the cold peak is early next week across the northeast sector of the U.S. By Monday morning temperatures plummet to 17 in Washington, 11 in Boston and -8 for Burlington, VT (Fig. 1). Each morning is accompanied by a moderate northwest wind causing wind chill readings to approach or dip below zero. Monday daytime brings little temperature rise as Boston stays in the teens while northern New England is in the single numbers. Washington/Baltimore struggle to reach 20. The daily HDD in Boston is around 52 with an effective HDD of about 59. Monday night lacks the wind but is colder (Fig. 2). This could be the coldest 2 days of winter across the Northeast States.
Following the cold outbreak into the Northeast early next week, a new storm emerges in the Great Plains to Mid-South U.S. Heavy snows are expected on the back side of the storm from Colorado to northwest Iowa where 10-20 in. of snow could occur from blizzard conditions (Fig. 3). This is a warm system therefore excessive rain centered on Louisiana top Tennessee including severe thunderstorms and flash flooding (Fig. 4). There may be significant freezing rain/ice in the Northeast as the arctic air retreats to Canada.
Fig. 3-4: ECM indicates a frigid air mass into the Northeast to start next week. Indicated are the morning low temperature forecasts for Monday and Tuesday morning.
In California the super warm temperatures continue into the weekend. Cooler weather arrives next week. A few locations toward the Southern California coast approach 90! Santa Ana wind continue through tomorrow but could last into the weekend.