Another Snowstorm for the Northern Plains

Saturday Severe Weather/High Wind into the East U.S.
04/01/2023, 9:24 am EDT
Dramatic Warming Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Signals An El Nino Trend
04/04/2023, 10:12 am EDT
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Fig. 1: GFS 48-hour snowfall forecast for the North-central U.S. valid through Wednesday.

Discussion: Winter Storm Warnings are issued for the eastern Dakota’s and northern half of Minnesota. A Blizzard Warning is issued for western South Dakota. The GFS indicates a 6-18-inch snowstorm ahead featuring high wind which will push 2-3-foot drifts of snow (Fig. 1). Blizzard conditions are likely to extend northeastward. Snow depth ahead of the storm is 20-25 in. across parts of South Dakota to Minnesota and about one foot (or more) across the far northern Great Plains (Fig. 2).

Warming is ahead in the medium range forecast! Please see the CIC U.S. medium-range forecast issued shortly.

Fig. 2: NOAA snow depth analysis for the U.S. valid April 2, 2023.

In Europe, the recent heavy precipitation pattern ends. The GFS ENS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast yields a dry pattern through mid-April (Fig. 3). In South America, a wetter trend over the weekend. Precipitation amount is well above normal in northwestern Argentina, western Paraguay, and through eastern Brazil (Fig. 4). Only Uruguay and vicinity is dry. The Australia 15-day forecast trends somewhat wetter as tropical moisture is entrained into the prevailing storm track to the south of Australia (Fig. 5). Included is a potential northwest coast tropical cyclone strike by early next week. A recent wet pattern in India has nearly erased the dry soil conditions of month ago across the northeast sector of India. However, a dry pattern returns to India in the latest 15-day forecast (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-4: Latest 15-day precipitation outlooks for Europe and South America.

Fig. 5-6: Latest 15-day precipitation outlooks for Australia and India.