Expected La Nina Wet Pattern Beginning To Evolve Australia

Anticipated La Nina wet climate pattern across Australia begins to evolve

Fig. 1-4: NCEP CFS V2 percent of normal rainfall forecast for the next 4 weeks indicates an evolving wet pattern.

Discussion: The expected broad wetter-than-normal climate pattern across Australia driven by an evolving La Nina appears to develop in the latest NCEP CFS V2 weekly rainfall forecast (Fig. 1-4). The model indicates presence of a persistent upper trough to generate rainfall mostly across the eastern half of the continent after mid-September and well into October (and beyond). Western Australia is at less (wet) risk. However, an expected negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) should bring wetter conditions to Western Australia mid-to-late spring.