North Atlantic Tropics Showing Signs of Life

Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO/IOD Update
08/20/2019, 10:23 am EDT
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Highlight: Becoming more active.

Fig. 1: Satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: The North Atlantic basin is showing some signs of life as the last week of August approaches (Fig. 1). An area of thunderstorms in the western Bahamas is gaining organization and is now a tropical disturbance (98L). This system drifts west-northwest into Florida this weekend and then turns northeastward and accelerates while becoming a tropical storm off the Carolina Coast Monday night/Tuesday. All models are in agreement on the northeast turn of 98L early next week and also an eventual tropical storm although timing of that intensity upgrade is in question. There is a slight chance this system could reach minimal hurricane strength east of New England middle of next week.

Tropical Disturbance 99L has formed in the central tropical North Atlantic and will drift westward with slow development likely. 99L should be a tropical storm by early next week reaching the eastern Caribbean Sea in 5 days. The early projection of 99L is uncertain once reaching the Caribbean Sea.

Former Tropical Storm Chantal remains in the north-central North Atlantic basin and is likely to remain quasi-stationary the next few days. A tropical wave moving off the West Africa coast is not expected to develop.