The influence on climate of large areas of warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures is an increasing trend. A current example is the historical warm anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico caused by an early 2020 strong subtropical ridge which has lead to coastal Gulf drought while inland excessive rain and flooding has occurred. The warm ocean surface and associated sea level rise raise an eyebrow as to potential damage caused by what is expected to be an active tropical cyclone season for summer into early autumn ahead.

Current soil moisture conditions across the Central and East U.S. are similar to last year at this time…wettest on record. Soil moisture is the result of the long-term climate therefore short-term climate predictions can use past precipitation patterns causing similarly wet soils to project the season ahead anomalous precipitation.

An intensifying positive phase of the Indian Ocean in recent months has lead to the latest wet monsoon on record for India, worsened drought across Australia and recently been associated with unexpected warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface (and El Nino-look).