03/27/2020, 5:08 am EDT

The Potent Influence and Implications of Warm SSTA on Climate

The influence on climate of large areas of warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures is an increasing trend. A current example is the historical warm anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico caused by an early 2020 strong subtropical ridge which has lead to coastal Gulf drought while inland excessive rain and flooding has occurred. The warm ocean surface and associated sea level rise raise an eyebrow as to potential damage caused by what is expected to be an active tropical cyclone season for summer into early autumn ahead.
02/27/2020, 4:50 am EST

The Most Reliable U.S. Spring 2020 Flood and Drought Outlook

Current soil moisture conditions across the Central and East U.S. are similar to last year at this time…wettest on record. Soil moisture is the result of the long-term climate therefore short-term climate predictions can use past precipitation patterns causing similarly wet soils to project the season ahead anomalous precipitation.
11/10/2019, 7:48 pm EST

Using Wet PDSI Analogs to Predict Winter Temperature and Following Spring Precipitation

The Great Plains soil moisture regime is historic wet right now caused by the wettest 12-month period on record for this region. A look back at the closest analog years reveals the most recent similarity is 2009 and most dramatic 1993. The consensus upper pattern for following winter certainly supports a prevailing cold U.S. pattern.