Although remaining within the ENSO prediction barrier (EPB) strongest during MAR/APR, most dynamic models are projecting a moderate-to-strong El Nino to emerge mid-to-late 2026. Coinciding with the strong El Nino, is a projection of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole.

During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place.

Although forecast models vary and consider possible improvement in U.S. soil moisture by late calendar spring, the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) favors an expansive dry-to-drought pattern for both the West and Central U.S. Forecast confidence is near to above normal on weakening drought risk across the eastern third of the nation and strengthening drought across the West U.S. to Texas. However, forecast confidence is near to below average for the Central U.S. dry outlook.

Over the weekend, rainfall forecasts have shifted drier in the Great Plains through 10 days and possibly the 11-15-day period. Anomalous warmth increases. Eastern Europe to the Black Sea region and southward to the Persian Gulf have shifted wetter and cooler in the medium range.