Currently, global oceanic aerial coverage of marine heatwaves (MHW) is 38% which is an increase of about 13% from early this year. NOAA states that by late December, the (global) value increases to a record 45%.

Traditionally, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is based on a simple comparison between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Northeast Pacific (north of 20N) and Northwest Pacific. Warmer Northwest Pacific than cooler Northeast Pacific SSTA regimes = -PDO and visa versa. The entire 2020’s observed persistent cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO). The AUG-26 PDO was -1.84. The International multi-model ensemble (IMME) global SSTA forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 maintains -PDO. But! The lengthiest and strongest -PDO (of the 2020’s) on record is not the same as a conventional -PDO regime.

Crops at risk of 2026-27 drought are northern Brazil corn, Northern Brazil palm oil (which also includes torrid drought affecting Western Indonesia palm oil, and Northern Brazil soybeans. Wet climate affects most of Brazil wheat and coffee.

Comparing 5 operational models with 7 AI models forecasting 2-meter temperature across North America utilizing CWG/SVWM anomaly correlation skill score (0 to 1 scale) during calendar-summer 2026 indicates operational models out-performed AI models by a small margin.