A comparison of anomaly correlation skill scores of 2-meter temperature forecasts between AI and NON-AI forecast models for North America and Europe yield extremely close results with AI edging NON-AI for both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day timeframes for North America while NON-AI managed to finish slightly ahead of AI in Europe for the 11-15-day period. The review is based on skill scores from the past 30 days.

Combining NOAA and Climate Impact Company (CIC) identification of current global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) SSTA forecast for APR/MAY/JUN 2026 renders expansion of marine heatwave (MHW) risk for 2026. According to NOAA, aerial coverage of global MHW’s is 23% in FEB-26 and forecast to increase to 30% by mid-year and 37% by end of 2026.

As of February 17th, the aerial coverage of ice across the Great Lakes is 47%. Since 2014, the current aerial coverage of Great Lakes ice is about average. When Great Lakes ice has been above average as observed during the 2013-14/2014-15 polar vortex winter seasons, FEB/MAR/APR climate across North America was biased colder than normal. When ice is at moderate levels similar with 2026, a cold bias during FEB/MAR/APR appears to the west of the Great Lakes region

The subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific continues too steadily warm. A Kelvin Wave moving east across the Dateline during early December reached waters off northwest South America recently while a second Kelvin Wave emerged near and east of the Dateline and is drifting eastward. The atmosphere remains slow to respond as southern oscillation index (SOI) stays positive and 15-day forecasts maintain the positive phase.