Historically, major hurricanes observed during AUG/SEP/OCT of strong El Nino years are minimal. Only 1 of 5 analog years produced 2 major hurricanes (2015) possibly related to a warmer North Atlantic basin. In 2026, the North Atlantic basin is projected twice as warm as 2015. Notable storms were Joaquin (2015) and Betsy (1965) for having southwesterly tracks into warmer ocean water to cause significant strengthening as westerly El Nino shear failed to turn these storms northward.

ECM ENS identifies the wet arc of moisture through the Southwest U.S. to the Colorado Rockies and into the Midwest U.S. in the latest 15-day forecast. Interestingly, AIFS ENS is farther to the west with the arc featuring remnants of a tropical cyclone striking California early in the 11-15-day period. The strong Southwest U.S. Monsoon is inspired by an intense marine heatwave off the coast of Southwest North America.

Climate Impact Company has revised the 2026 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast LOWER to 9 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The ACE index forecast is 50. The CIC forecast is similar with the Colorado State University downward revision. ECMWF rainfall probability forecasts indicate this year’s activity is heavily biased toward the subtropics with very limited deep tropics development. The outlook is revised lower due to the evolving super El Nino and the suppressing effects of El Nino on tropical cyclone development.

The daily Nino12 SSTA is a buoyantly warm +4.04C which is frighteningly impressive! Weekly Nino12 SSTA exceeding +4.0C occurred only once, during the 1982-83 El Nino when +4.5 was observed in late June 1983 during the mature phase of that El Nino episode. Entering August, 2026-27 El Nino is in its infancy.