Right now, most operational models do not reflect their (-AO/-NAO) climate signals forecasts which is why traders/analysts are encouraged to watch trends rather than any single forecast. Many forecast models are cool East days 6-10 followed by an 11-15-day warm-up with the warmth extending to the 16-20-day period. The AO/NAO forecast (above), if consistent through tonight, suggests a cooler East U.S. extended range. To illustrate the low confidence forecast, note U.S. gas population weight HDD projections for Oct. 16-22 which depict one of the largest ranges in possibilities seen.

During the past 7 days, expected wet weather across the southern half of Brazil has developed while wet soil moisture conditions in Argentina have expanded northward.

Global soil moisture anomalies analysis from September 2026 reveals many drought areas including Mexico into the Southern U.S., Northern Brazil, Central tropical Africa, Southern India, and parts of Indonesia plus the West and East Coast of Australia. The most prolific drought is in Europe. Northern Russia is (also) in a drought condition although easing during recent weeks.

Currently, global oceanic aerial coverage of marine heatwaves (MHW) is 38% which is an increase of about 13% from early this year. NOAA states that by late December, the (global) value increases to a record 45%.