Provided is an explanation of the primary climate drivers of the just-completed meteorological summer climate pattern across South America. Emphasized is the influence of the (record warm) SSTA pattern in the tropics on the intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the latent heat release form the attendant convection leading to subtropical high pressure in the subtropical to mid-latitudes across South America.

Based on a constructed analog which identifies: 1.) The evolution of a warming mid-latitude ocean during the past 10 years, 2.) An enhanced warming of the mid-latitude oceans during the past 5 years, and 3.) Decelerating El Nino to La Nina climate, a projection of 500 MB anomalies and attendant soil moisture conditions for Western Russia and the U.S. is provided.

A comparison of northern hemisphere 500 MB height anomalies for DEC/JAN/FEB during the strongest 3 El Nino events of the past 30 years to the just-ended event yields several interesting observations. The general 500 MB anomaly pattern is remarkably consistent but notice how each year produces less and less bold upper trough signatures.

The summer 2024 forecast is most confident over North America where elevated drought risk is forecast for the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Forecast confidence is lower for the Europe outlook as timing of drought differs from summertime for Western Europe according to CFS to mid-to-late summer by the CIC forecast centered on France and the Black Sea region.