A comparison of northern hemisphere 500 MB height anomalies for DEC/JAN/FEB during the strongest 3 El Nino events of the past 30 years to the just-ended event yields several interesting observations. The general 500 MB anomaly pattern is remarkably consistent but notice how each year produces less and less bold upper trough signatures.

The global climate is expected to shift toward and into a La Nina regime during the 2024 North Atlantic and coupled with forecasts of very warm SST across the North Atlantic, 2024 has the chance to produce record-strength (and amount) of tropical cyclones. This statement is a likely sentiment of the government, academic, and private sector outlooks issued this spring. Climate Impact Company…March 28 Tropical Storm Risk/U.K…April 8 Colorado State University…April 4 NOAA…Around May 23.

Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is an index used to identify the atmospheric response of the sea surface temperature (and pressure) anomalies in the Pacific equatorial region. The 2023-24 El Nino episode, according to MEI, was the 3rd weakest (MEI = 0.68) since 1979 despite moderate to strong oceanic intensity using conventional Nino34 index.