The late April 2023 snow cover across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest is rare but not unprecedented. Since 1998 (when satellite snow cover is easily attainable) late April significant snow cover across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2022.

From North Dakota to Kansas, 91% of that stretch was in drought at the beginning of the year. That number lowers to 77% in early April. In the Oklahoma to Texas stretch, 68% of that region was in drought on the 1st of January lowering to 52% in early April. So…aerial coverage of drought has lowered through Q1/2023. However, intense D3/D4 drought remains prominent in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. The precipitation outlooks indicate worsening conditions are possible over the next 6 weeks.

At issue is the Great Plains/Texas drought as mid-meteorological spring approaches. All western and southern Kansas plus the Oklahoma Panhandle are in D4 (“exceptional drought”) classification. To best understand the 15-day outlook, the mega-cluster ensemble is considered to determine rainfall risk in the drought areas.

Marine heat wave NEP22A located north-northeast of Hawaii is budging eastward again. NEP22A is the 2nd longest duration and 4th largest in aerial coverage MHW since satellite monitoring began in 1982. Dynamic models maintain the eastward shift toward the west coast of North America heading into summertime.