There is a likelihood for a complete reversal in global climate patterns from what they are now for later 2024. The potential for a long-term change in the ENSO cycle is emerging on the horizon.

Of interest, is the reasonable certainty by many dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models that La Nina will replace the current El Nino during the last third of 2024. Consequently, a brief glimpse as to what to expect for winter 2024-25 temperature patterns in North America and Europe plus rainfall patterns for summer 2024-25 in South America and Australia is reviewed.

A 10-day forecast of synoptic features across the U.S. valid 7PM EST on Monday November 27th was performed using a comparison between GFS, ECM, and Graph Cast AI-generated models. The results were a near perfect forecast by Graph Cast while GFS was out-of-phase with an Upper Midwest storm and attendant cold front while ECM was much too stormy across the Southern States.  

During the past several weeks, a large area of exceptionally warm surface water has developed between 20S and 25S in the South Atlantic Ocean. Initially, the large area of warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) formed off the Southwest Africa Coast. During the past 30 days the anomalous warmth has surged westward toward the central Brazil Coast.