A frigid Russia air mass inspired in-part by regional stratospheric warming shifts westward into Europe during the medium range as the stratospheric warmth also shifts westward to the North Atlantic in 11-15 days. By late month, the stratospheric warming reaches eastern North America and should cause a cold ending of January/beginning of February for eastern North America.

Upper ocean heat east of the Dateline in the equatorial East Pacific is steadily increasing. The warming is attributed to an eastward shifting Kelvin Wave which has increased intensity during January. The upper ocean heat warming is similar with 2023 ahead of an El Nino event that developed later that year. Global SSTA forecasts have adjusted to the evolving El Nino scenario for quarter 2 of 2026.

U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts through 6 weeks from late December correctly identified the warmer early-to-middle January warmer trend although not as warm as observed. Today’s projection for the current week is MUCH warmer than forecast in late December and possibly the largest reason for natural gas price collapse late last week. Projections for week-4 are near the 30-year normal, somewhat less cold than both CFS/ECM and AI indicated from 2 weeks ago.

Historic warmth of the Northeast Pacific along the U.S. West Coast to Baja California is attributed to two climate patterns affecting NW/West HYDRO: 1.) Long duration dry high-pressure ridge (as expected during the next 3 weeks); 2.) Over-achieving precipitation producers as seen with the recent atmospheric river, a pattern that may return in February. 70% of the U.S. is affected by dry-to-drought conditions caused in-part by an 18-month La Nina climate as identified by multi-variate ENSO index. The outlooks for spring indicate significant drought potential for the southeast quadrant of the U.S.