Over the weekend, rainfall forecasts have shifted drier in the Great Plains through 10 days and possibly the 11-15-day period. Anomalous warmth increases. Eastern Europe to the Black Sea region and southward to the Persian Gulf have shifted wetter and cooler in the medium range.

An El Nino climate is projected to develop during the second half of 2026 and continue into early 2027 across South America. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecasts for the next 4 seasons are based on the evolution of an El Nino climate plus influences on climate from the tropical South Atlantic SSTA regime and tendency for strong marine heatwaves off each coast.

Two marine heatwaves (MHW) are located off the U.S. and Baja California West Coast. MHW NEP25A reached record aerial coverage last autumn although weaker now while MHW NEP25B formed late last year, persisted all winter, and strengthened. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico SSTA is +1.35C ranking in the top 1% warmest (since 1982).

Vigorous positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is the lead climate signal supporting the warm pattern across the U.S. during the past 14 days. The negative phase of the Pacific North America (-PNA) has dominated in recent weeks although under-performing as a wet/snowy weather maker in the Northwest/West U.S. while the attendant dry signal for the Southeast is strong.