The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook based on the 90-day long-lead climate forecast indicates the Southwest U.S. Drought eases while drought over the Northwest and Western Great Plains expands adding the Coastal Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Interior Texas. Mid-Atlantic States maintain their drought while New England and Florida drought conditions will erode.

Positive phase of the East Atlantic/Western Russia (+EAWR) index is present when an amplified upper-level high pressure ridge emerges over Europe compensated for by a downstream upper trough near the Caspian Sea while a deep trough resides over the North Atlantic and a second high pressure area forms over Northeast China. Another related trough forms over the Midwest U.S. during the +EAWR regime.

ALERT for significant anomalous heat and dryness emerges across West and Central Europe during the second half of June. To best illustrate the threat, the AIFS ENS is utilized. AIFS ENS has generally been the top or near the top model for skill scores during the past 30 days.

Traditional measurements of ENSO phase indicated El Nino onset during early Q2/2026. However, the new relative operational Nino index (RONI) is (now) used to determine ENSO strength and forecasts. Using RONI, NOAA identifies the presence of El Nino beginning in June. Dynamic models continue to forecast a potential record strength oceanic El Nino likely due to the immense upper ocean heat rivaling the 1997-98 El Nino as most intense on record. However, using a RONI analog, the ENSO climate may be less impressive and is followed by La Nina returning next year.