El Nino onset is on our doorstep. Due to the historical upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific which represents potential energy to fuel a significant El Nino, rapid El Nino strengthening is likely through Q3/2026 with a likely peak in intensity which could be the strongest on record occurring during Q4/2026. Uncertain is whether a positive Indian Ocean dipole of significance will develop (or not). El Nino is likely to carry well into 2027 with a possible phase change holding off until Q4/2027 at the earliest.

The traditional Nino SSTA weekly observations indicate the El Nino threshold is surpassed by all Nino regions. However, the new relative Nino index maintains neutral ENSO phase. The relative Nino SSTA are moderately cooler than historical indices. As of earlier this year, the relative Nino index is used to identify and forecast ENSO phase by NOAA and Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

The Australia month 1-3 ahead wind speed forecast is presented using two methodologies: 1.) Climate Impact Company constructed analog for zonal and meridional wind directions and 2.) ECMWF probabilistic outlook. ECMWF is generally indicating lighter than normal wind speeds for the 3-month period except above normal wind speeds for the Southeast Coast during JUN/JUL (agreeable to the CIC-CA outlook).

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast for summer 2026 across India is issued. The forecast is confidently based on an emerging strong El Nino, which has a drying effect on India and a less confident evolution of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole, normally a wet influence on India climate. The JUN/JUL/AUG 2026 precipitation forecast across India is mostly dry according to CIC although with some locally patchy wet month-to-month areas.