The latest Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast for meteorological summer 2025-26 has changed. The outlook is drier across East Australia and hotter across Southeast/South-central Australia. The anomalous heat and dryness in this region indicate expanding drought is likely.

During November, La Nina is weak but established with both oceanic and atmospheric characteristics. The Nino34 SSTA cools to -0.8C, the strongest (cool) signature of this episode. The southern oscillation index shifted to (mostly) strong positive phase during November, indicating a La Nina atmosphere has formed. The subsurface cool fuel to maintain La Nina is weak-to-moderate and slightly less cool during the past 1-2 weeks.

Latest review of what to expect for U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts for the 2025-26 cold season. November was warm with colder weather arriving for December followed by a January thaw and seasonably cold late winter. The climate forecast is SSTA-based and doubts major polar vortex events except for early and late meteorological winter but with limited exposure to the high population East.

Operational forecasts continue to indicate a wet weather shift to Brazil. The mega-cluster ensemble indicates wet weather risk is highest in Northeast Brazil into the weekend while Argentina turns drier. The drier trend for Argentina is also evident during the medium range while wet focus shifts to East Brazil.