The estimated U.S. CDD forecast for week 3-5 ahead remains hot according to ECM while AI models are consistently much cooler. Interestingly, CFS V2 is sharply cooler for week-3 then bounces hotter for week-4/week-5. The primary issue is whether the East U.S. is hot (or not). The East cools off later July but should gradually reheat although not as aggressively as ECM. CFS V2 has the right “trend” and AI models are too cool.

During late June/early July, emergence of a strong positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (++GLAAM) regime has returned. The new surge of +GLAAM is related to the onset of an El Nino climate. Previously, a pulse of ++GLAAM was observed during late May/early June, elated to a strong Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode, and the correlating U.S. temperature anomalies were extremely warm, especially for the Central U.S.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is intensifying, one of the most impressive early July signatures on record. The cold SSTA east of Newfoundland coupled with warm SSTA to the south inspire stronger than normal westerly wind compensated for by stronger easterly trade winds to the south of The Bermuda High.

Upper ocean heat observations for June 2026 reveal record warmth in the equatorial Pacific region with waters east of the Dateline getting close to the record observed during the all-time strongest El Nino in 1997. Fuel to accelerate El Nino 2026-27 to record levels is clearly present.