Striking is the amount of WET soil moisture regions across the globe just after mid-year. The central and eastern U.S. are much wetter and any important drought conditions have disappeared except for Southern Florida. In the U.S., the western states are encountering a severe drought which is worsening. The Canadian Prairies have unexpectedly shifted wetter while Southwest Canada is drier.

July 2025 monthly Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index was the most negative (-4.00) in the 1950-2025 climatology. The record -PDO was produced by the relationship between near to slightly cooler than normal sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) off the North America West Coast and the marine heatwave (MHW) excessive warm SSTA off the East Asia Coast and past the Dateline to 150W longitude.

The FINAL Climate Impact Company 2025 North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone forecast indicates (after Tropical Storm Dexter) that an additional 12 tropical cyclones will form of which 7 become hurricanes and 4 reach major hurricane strength. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 135.

A sophisticated analog system, the machine learning AI 4Cast Net V2 GFS ENS, projects above normal wind speed risk (at 100 meters) in the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas for middle August and across the Caribbean Sea for late August. Implications for potential tropical cyclones are suggested by these forecasts.