10/31/2021, 8:46 am EDT

Marine Heat Waves Shape Prevailing Weather Patterns

Since 2000 marine heat waves have increased especially since 2010. Most famous is the emergence of the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific in 2013 which not only caused dramatic warming at the surface but also to several hundred feet in depth. Other “warm blobs” east of Australia and New Zealand are routinely monitored for their strength, persistence and influence on weather and climate. Provided is a brief assessment of the current location/intensity of "warm blobs" and the influence on the upper air patterns in each hemisphere.
10/05/2021, 7:40 am EDT

The Last Fortified La Nina Modoki

La Nina Modoki is rare! The last fortified La Nina Modoki occurred during quarter 1 of 1989. The climate patterns for quarter 1 of 1989 associated with this ENSO regime were generally much different from conventional La Nina. The La Nina Modoki favors a drier climate in South America and Australia and shifts typical storm tracks for mid-to-late winter across the U.S. while favoring a colder climate. The La Nina Modoki climate anomalies identified may not be exactly as indicated given the much warmer global oceans of the modern-day climate.
09/02/2021, 10:09 am EDT

Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing

A leading catalyst for wet climate forecasts across parts of Brazil during spring 2021 is a projected westward shift of warmer than normal SSTA in the South Atlantic tropics toward the Northeast Brazil coast indicated by most SSTA models. During the past several weeks this previously robust warm SSTA region has trended cooler and is not showing the westward shift as previously indicated. The wet spring forecasts remain but confidence has lowered.