09/14/2022, 4:42 am EDT

Presence of TUTT Leads to a Revised 2022 Tropical Cyclone Season Forecast for Much Lower Amount

Climate Impact Company has updated the remainder of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone seasonal forecast indicating an additional 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 intense hurricane with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 63. The second half of the season projection added to activity so far produces a greatly reduced 2022 seasonal total of 12 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 1 intense hurricane and ACE index of 93.
08/25/2022, 8:03 pm EDT

If NEP22A/NEP22B Merge…Cold East U.S. November Likely

Currently, two "warm blobs" are in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. A similar signature was present during early autumn 2014. What happened? The "Warm blobs" merged, and the atmosphere responded with a "ridge bridge" pattern across Alaska and compensating downstream "polar vortex" in the East U.S. by November. A similar scenario is POTENTIALLY setting up now!
08/02/2022, 5:42 am EDT

Why Have Week-2 U.S. CDD Forecasts Been Too Hot?

Week-2 ahead U.S. population weight CDD forecasts have routinely been too hot for most of meteorological summer so far. Speculated is forecast models are hot-biased due to stronger than existing dry soil moisture conditions which produce short-term errors that grow with time. NOAA soil moisture analysis varies from dramatically dry to realistic dry.
07/28/2022, 5:04 am EDT

What Weather Pattern Makes a Cold Winter in Europe?

Before issuing the Europe winter 2022-23 climate outlook, a review of what makes a cold winter in Europe is reviewed. Wintertime since the turn of the century is examined. Results identify two regimes: A cold period for most of the first 13 winter seasons of this century and generally mild winter seasons during the past 9 years.