The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast for summer 2026 across India is issued. The forecast is confidently based on an emerging strong El Nino, which has a drying effect on India and a less confident evolution of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole, normally a wet influence on India climate. The JUN/JUL/AUG 2026 precipitation forecast across India is mostly dry according to CIC although with some locally patchy wet month-to-month areas.

Is there a relationship between summer climate and large areas of wet soil regions during spring? Yes! And the relationship can be profound and demonstrates a residual effect on mid-level troposphere pressure systems elsewhere. Currently, the Great Lakes region is in a historically wet soil moisture regime which continues to intensify. This region will enter the 2026 summer season with soaking wet soil conditions.

The warm season (MAY-SEP) 2026 cooling degree days outlook for selected cities across the PJM Service Area indicates a split (climate) pattern. PJM-West is susceptible to El Nino-fueled cloudiness and wet weather likely to suppress warm season cooling demand.

MJO forcing causes a heavy rain scenario across Northern Argentina/Paraguay and Northeast Brazil the next 7-10 days. However, tropical involvement is diminished in the extended range as Brazil shifts much drier. Dry soils in Southeast Brazil increase the risk of steady late season anomalous heat.