ECMWF favors light cold season wind across Southern Canada, above normal wind for the West Coast and Florida. The constructed analog is disagreeable.

The 30-day skill scores of North America 2-meter temperature forecasts valid during the medium range identify AI models as having a clear slight edge over operational models.

During the past 7 days, heavy rain was centered on Paraguay and much of Argentina. Southeast Brazil was (also) wet. Central and East Brazil have been dry. Daily soil moisture analysis reveals the effectiveness of the Southern Brazil and Argentina rains as soil moisture shifts wetter.

The ongoing campaign by Climate Impact Company to identify how mid-latitude oceanic warming affects historical understanding of climate signals continues. The most recent example is the +NAO to -NAO pattern change projection over the next 2-3 weeks.