News
03/31/2025, 1:07 pm EDT

If Warm Nino12 SSTA Region Persists, Hurricane Activity Suppressed

Of potential influence on the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is the ongoing very warm Nino12 SSTA off the northwest coast of South America while the Nino34 SSTA, where oceanic ENSO phase is measured, has recently shifted from La Nina to neutral ENSO although waters in this region have re-cooled slightly during the past 2 weeks. The persistent unusual warming of waters off the northwest coast of South America while the remainder of the equatorial East Pacific observed near normal SSTA began in early February.
03/23/2025, 9:36 am EDT

No La Nina and Super-warm North Atlantic Tropics in 2025 Holds Seasonal Activity Back Slightly

The (recent) climate catalysts forcing unusually high amounts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin is the presence of La Nina climate (as defined by multivariate ENSO index) and very warm sea SSTA in the North Atlantic tropics (as defined by tropical North Atlantic index). These conditions were especially present during 2017 (10 hurricanes/6 major hurricanes), 2020 (13/6), and 2024 (11/5). A La Nina climate produces below normal wind shear aloft necessary across the North Atlantic tropics to allow abundant tropical cyclones to form and storm intensity increases due to the anomalous warm ocean.
03/18/2025, 2:55 pm EDT

Unusually Low Pressure Fueled the Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak

Unusually low pressure fueled a severe weather episode, beginning last Friday (Mar. 14) and continuing through the weekend (Mar. 15-16). On Friday, the storm center travelled northeastward from southwest Kansas to southern Minnesota with surface pressure between 976 and 979 MB. On Friday, streaks of hostile weather were observed from Kansas City to Chicago, St. Louis to Dayton, and near Little Rock to Cincinnati.