Forecast bias has generally been too wet so far this spring in the Central U.S. Included in that bias are the extended range 16-30-day forecasts. Borth ECM and CFS V2 are too wet in the Great Plains and Southeast U.S. during the past 30 days although ECM is less wet in the Central U.S.

El Nino onset is on our doorstep. Due to the historical upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific which represents potential energy to fuel a significant El Nino, rapid El Nino strengthening is likely through Q3/2026 with a likely peak in intensity which could be the strongest on record occurring during Q4/2026. Uncertain is whether a positive Indian Ocean dipole of significance will develop (or not). El Nino is likely to carry well into 2027 with a possible phase change holding off until Q4/2027 at the earliest.

The traditional Nino SSTA weekly observations indicate the El Nino threshold is surpassed by all Nino regions. However, the new relative Nino index maintains neutral ENSO phase. The relative Nino SSTA are moderately cooler than historical indices. As of earlier this year, the relative Nino index is used to identify and forecast ENSO phase by NOAA and Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

The Australia month 1-3 ahead wind speed forecast is presented using two methodologies: 1.) Climate Impact Company constructed analog for zonal and meridional wind directions and 2.) ECMWF probabilistic outlook. ECMWF is generally indicating lighter than normal wind speeds for the 3-month period except above normal wind speeds for the Southeast Coast during JUN/JUL (agreeable to the CIC-CA outlook).