The official start of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season is June 1st. During the active tropical cyclone season period of 2016-2024 when an average of 18-19 named storms have generated each year, the North Atlantic has averaged much warmer than normal and a likely catalyst to the active period. As mid-May approaches, the North Atlantic basin is marginally warm (+0.37C) and 0.23C cooler than 1 year ago.

The primary culprit to the extreme heat observed across much of Australia during the past 3 months is the enhancing influence on subtropical upper-level high-pressure ridging stretching from southeast of New Zealand to Southern Australia by the presence of MHW’s.

A moist southwest flow entraining moisture from waters southwest of California and helping to cause the wet APR/MAY pattern in the U.S. should start to lose steam after the last excessive rainfall event spread across the Southeast U.S. through the weekend.

The 5th day of the month release of the ECMWF monthlies yields high impact hot and dry projections for JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 across the Great Plains and Central Europe. Parts of these regions are already in drought and the outlook from ECMWF implies intensifying drought for summer 2025.