March 2024 brought the 12th consecutive month of record warm global oceans. The daily global SSTA analysis reveals the influence on record warm global oceans by marine heatwaves (MHW). Several MHW’s are steady or strengthening in the southern hemisphere while the second year of a MHW off the Northwest Africa Coast is regaining strength and a new MHW is forming off the coast of East Asia.

Extreme weather events or climate regimes are often blamed on climate change (or global warming). However, rarely are the weather/climate synoptics causing the event identified and reviewed. An attempt to identify the catalyst to recent historic flooding in the Southern Ural region of Russia to Northern Kazakhstan and adding Dubia well to the south is provided.

Surprisingly, early April accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) forecasts for the following tropical cyclone season issued by Colorado State University have limited skill. The average error during the 2007-2023 period is 45. Of the 17 years since seasonal ACE forecasts were generated, 6 years were (well) under-forecast, 5 years were (well) over-forecast, and 6 were reasonable (within 30).

During the past decade marine heat waves (MHW) have dramatically increased their presence, aerial coverage, and duration poleward of the deep tropics in both hemispheres. The influence on climate is dramatic and warrants application of a 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) both to generating seasonal forecasts and explaining climate regime observations on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. In February 2024, MHW’s occupied 38% of the global oceans ranking 5th during all months since 1991 according to NOAA.