The North Atlantic basin observed 20 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 146 in 2023. The activity level is considered moderately higher than normal and unusually active for an El Nino warm season. The much warmer than normal North Atlantic basin enabled buoyant activity although except for Idalia most activity was out-to-sea. The preliminary outlook for 2024 is a stronger season than 2023 with much greater risk of hurricanes returning to the western North Atlantic basin.

A 10-day forecast of synoptic features across the U.S. valid 7PM EST on Monday November 27th was performed using a comparison between GFS, ECM, and Graph Cast AI-generated models. The results were a near perfect forecast by Graph Cast while GFS was out-of-phase with an Upper Midwest storm and attendant cold front while ECM was much too stormy across the Southern States.  

During the past several weeks, a large area of exceptionally warm surface water has developed between 20S and 25S in the South Atlantic Ocean. Initially, the large area of warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) formed off the Southwest Africa Coast. During the past 30 days the anomalous warmth has surged westward toward the central Brazil Coast.

The rainfall pattern in the tropics across the Pacific Ocean with all El Nino’s since 2000 during AUG/SEP/OCT has produced typical heavy thunderstorm activity and attendant rainfall across the central and east-central Pacific. To compensate, the far western tropical Pacific/Indonesia observes atmospheric subsidence and a dry climate. The vertical air motion difference between the sinking air over Indonesia and rising air near and east of the Dateline drives the El Nino climate. In 2023, the pattern described is not present.