11/16/2022, 4:55 am EST

Argentina Marine Heat Wave Influencing South America Climate

The strengthening “warm blob” of SSTA to the east of Argentina is well-correlated to anomalous high-pressure ridging aloft. At times, that high-pressure influence causes dryness and anomalous heat in Argentina likely to expand northward into Southern Brazil during the summer season. To compensate for the upper ridge, a wet low-pressure trough (correlated to slightly cool SSTA east of Brazil) is also likely to persist and cause a wet pattern for north and east portions of Brazil into the summer 2022-23 season.
10/26/2022, 5:00 am EDT

Updating The North Pacific “Warm Blob” and Explaining Optimum Climate Normal

According to NOAA/SFSC the 2022 Northeast Pacific "warm blob" (NEP22A) has reached a sufficient intensity and aerial coverage making NEP22A the 4th most intense in the 40-year record. This feature, semi-permanent since 2014, has been well-correlated to a persistent upper-level pattern in the northern hemisphere featuring a drought-enhancing western North America drought and presence of a "polar vortex" sometimes capable of delivering extreme cold to the U.S. during winter.
10/23/2022, 1:12 pm EDT

Updating Global SSTA, Soil Moisture and November 2022 Global Climate Expectations

Regional SSTA in the middle latitudes continue to have a profound influence on climate as Q4/2022 has started and this influence will certainly continue in November 2022. Highlights include a West-central North America full-latitude upper ridge, an eastward shift of the Europe ridge, favoring a dry ridge for Argentina and more soaking rains caused by a persistent East Australia low pressure area.
10/16/2022, 10:15 am EDT

Explaining the Extreme Rainfall Events in Eastern Australia

Another extreme rainfall event has struck Australia, this time centered on parts of the Victoria State including the city of Melbourne. The extreme rainfall events have become commonplace in southeast Queensland, eastern New South Wales and into Victoria during the past 2 years. La Nina is certainly a contributor to the wet pattern. However, the excessive character of the coastal rains may be related to the semi-permanent “warm blob” of SSTA surrounding New Zealand and stretching eastward across the subtropical South Pacific Ocean.