News
05/20/2024, 2:23 pm EDT

Record Warm Sectors of the North Atlantic Basin Getting Warmer

The daily North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is +0.94C and implies the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is similar and therefore easily a record warm value for May. The North Atlantic basin has warmed 0.23C during the past 7 days. A primary contributor is the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index located across the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes. The daily TNA index is +1.46C maintaining the record warm signature in this part of the outer tropical North Atlantic basin.
05/15/2024, 9:20 am EDT

The 2024 Severe Weather Season So Far; Second-most Tornadoes

As of mid-May, the U.S. severe weather season has produced the second-most number of tornadoes so far, and second only to 2011. The upper air pattern during MAR/APR/MAY 2024 (so far) has featured a persistent upper trough over the Southwest U.S. forcing the subtropical jet (STJ) stream to arc northeastward across Mexico to the Southeast U.S. inspiring low-level jet (LLJ) streams forcing buoyant moisture northward from the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. The intersection of the upper-level high wind band over a lower atmosphere channel of warm moist air is causal to severe weather.
05/14/2024, 6:03 am EDT

Fine Line for Wet Vs. Dry in Central U.S. Summer 2024?

Is the wet May pattern in the eastern half of the U.S. anomalous? No, the wet pattern is likely to continue during the summer months for much of the eastern half of the nation. Tricky is the wet East/dry West dividing line as relevant to U.S. Crop Areas. The U.S. Corn Belt and soybean growing areas may be centered on that dividing line which can cause havoc to agriculture analysts, planners, and traders as crop conditions vary widely.
05/09/2024, 10:24 am EDT

North Atlantic/Northeast Pacific and ENSO Forecasts

An extremely complicated North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific SSTA regime with profound influence on North America and Europe climate is reviewed. The North Atlantic is record warm but with a unique character and forecast (by ECMWF) to change during the northern hemisphere summer.