The daily Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is +1.01C indicating presence of strong positive phase which initiated several weeks ago although the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was +0.68C for AUG-26 suggesting +IOD may have formed during later July. Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates +IOD will continue through Q4/2026 with an average index of +0.8C rivaling 2023 (+09C), 2019 (+0.9C), 2018 (+0.6C), and 1997 (+1.2C). Only 2023 and 1997 +IOD regimes were concurrent with El Nino episodes.

The MJO outlook indicates a potential eastward shift during the last third of September reaching phase_1 or possibly phase_2 by late month. If MJO shifts east and reaches phase_2, support for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity increases significantly.

The initial U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2026-27 cold season reveals a mild regime with each month forecast below the 10-year/30-year climatology. Regionally, all zones are warmer than normal for NOV-26 to MAR-27 except near the 10-year normal for Texas.

The dramatic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific ALSO means sharp sea level rise. Current NOAA analysis reveals the ocean rise in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the recent oceanic warming is about 14 inches. The Kelvin Wave causing the ocean rise is “fanning” northward and will reach waters off the California Coast during the month of September raising sea level from about 6 inches above normal (now) to 12-13 inches above normal later this month. The ocean rise is accompanied by additional warming.