08/02/2022, 5:42 am EDT

Why Have Week-2 U.S. CDD Forecasts Been Too Hot?

Week-2 ahead U.S. population weight CDD forecasts have routinely been too hot for most of meteorological summer so far. Speculated is forecast models are hot-biased due to stronger than existing dry soil moisture conditions which produce short-term errors that grow with time. NOAA soil moisture analysis varies from dramatically dry to realistic dry.
07/28/2022, 5:04 am EDT

What Weather Pattern Makes a Cold Winter in Europe?

Before issuing the Europe winter 2022-23 climate outlook, a review of what makes a cold winter in Europe is reviewed. Wintertime since the turn of the century is examined. Results identify two regimes: A cold period for most of the first 13 winter seasons of this century and generally mild winter seasons during the past 9 years.
07/17/2022, 12:22 pm EDT

Effects on Climate of Warming Reginal SSTA

As northern hemisphere mid-summer approaches, mid-latitude ocean waters are warming to much above normal levels off the East Asia Coast, north and northeast of Hawaii and east of the Northeast U.S. plus the Mediterranean Sea. ECMWF projects the warming to continue and intensify. Large areas of very warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are well-correlated with stronger-than-normal high-pressure aloft which increases risk of drought and anomalous heat in the affected areas.
06/26/2022, 8:54 am EDT

Model Verification Indicates Recent Cooler/Wetter U.S. Forecasts Are Overstated

Recent forecasts for the medium range particularly by GFS have turned somewhat cooler after a nationally hot June pattern (so far). The hot June observations (so far) have been driven in-part by a wide area of soil moisture deficits and a drier Eastern U.S. trend. Consequently, the GFS is verifying too cool in the Midwest States (and too warm in the West). Most models have also been biased too wet North-central and East in June.