Combining SPI6 and CAS soil moisture anomaly forecasts for July, an ALERT for excessive heat across ongoing or developing drought areas in the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States and Great Plains is issued.

The U.S. Weekly Drought Monitor analysis reveals a slight increase (76%) from the previous week in aerial coverage of dry-to-drought soil moisture conditions while severe (D3-D4) drought remains unchanged at 19%. During May so far, U.S. soil moisture tendency is much drier across the Midwest States and much wetter in the Gulf region. Wet weather including daily severe weather events regenerates in the Central U.S. through the weekend into early next week!

Regarding the cool season precipitation climate across South America during Super El Nino, the 2015, 1997, and 1982 episodes combine to produce a wet climate across Southeast Brazil and Paraguay while Northwest Brazil is very dry. The most recent Super El Nino (2015) produced a slightly wetter Southeast Brazil climate pattern.

As mid-May approaches, just a few weeks before onset of tropical cyclone season, the North Atlantic basin is moderately warm (+0.48C) which is about 0.2C warmer than one year ago and generally cooler than basin SSTA for this time of year during the past decade. The warm regions are the Gulf of Mexico (basin average +0.88C) and eastward across the Bahamas to southeast of Bermuda. Other areas are cooler than normal, especially off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and southwest of Portugal. The North Atlantic warm hole (NAHW) south of Greenland is developing.