Let’s take a quick look at verification of Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts, made in late April, for June and July 2023. A constructed analog forecast is based on regional SSTA patterns and their historical relationship to upper air patterns that drive our sensible weather.

In the North Pacific, an immense MHW has strengthened across the northwest basin. Similarly, MHW NEP23A in the northeast Pacific has strengthened and shifted to the northwest coast of North America. In the North Atlantic basin, the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) recently shifted to coastal West Europe. However, the rapid development of a MHW off Newfoundland during late spring is now weakening quickly. The MHW off northwest Africa extending to the western Mediterranean Sea has weakened slightly.

We’ve entered the most active part of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season (after Aug. 1st). For now, the basin is all clear. However, normal to above normal hurricanes/major hurricanes remain in the forecast primarily due to the record warm surface of the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics. The forecast is unique, a potential big year for hurricanes in the face of a developing El Nino climate. Provided are the latest daily SSTA analysis for the Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic, and main development region (MDR) in the outer tropics. The Gulf and MDR are record warm. Given the super warm SST, if the proper environment evolves, the potential for unusually strong hurricanes is high!

Yet another surprise, likely unknown is ahead for the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere winter. For the first time in recorded history, the combination of an over-achieving solar maxima, El Nino climate, and much warmer than normal ocean surface is likely to drive the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere climate pattern.