The equatorial subsurface warmed during the past few weeks although losing some intensity as mid-January approaches. Also losing intensity is remnant cool waters in the subsurface off the northwest coast of South America.

The “weeklies” skill scores from the past 30, 14, and 7 days predicting 2-meter temperature forecasts for North America is horrible. The exception is, surprisingly, GFS ENS with traditional ECM “weeklies” a distant second.

A frigid Russia air mass inspired in-part by regional stratospheric warming shifts westward into Europe during the medium range as the stratospheric warmth also shifts westward to the North Atlantic in 11-15 days. By late month, the stratospheric warming reaches eastern North America and should cause a cold ending of January/beginning of February for eastern North America.

Upper ocean heat east of the Dateline in the equatorial East Pacific is steadily increasing. The warming is attributed to an eastward shifting Kelvin Wave which has increased intensity during January. The upper ocean heat warming is similar with 2023 ahead of an El Nino event that developed later that year. Global SSTA forecasts have adjusted to the evolving El Nino scenario for quarter 2 of 2026.