During April 2026, the Ohio and Tennessee Valley to Virginia observed record warmth. Most of the U.S. was MUCH WARMER than normal. The exception was slightly cooler than normal in North Dakota. The April 2026 precipitation pattern featured record amount in Wisconsin and Michigan and VERY WET conditions in Iowa and Missouri. Conversely, The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States were very dry with several states in the to-5 all-time driest.

AI models (7) outperform dynamic models (5) in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day timescales for North America by small margins. In Europe, AI models edge-out dynamic models in both time periods. Climate Impact Company regards 0.75-0.80 as a good skill score for 6-10-day forecasts and 0.55-0.60 as desirable in the 11-15-day period.

Forecast bias has generally been too wet so far this spring in the Central U.S. Included in that bias are the extended range 16-30-day forecasts. Borth ECM and CFS V2 are too wet in the Great Plains and Southeast U.S. during the past 30 days although ECM is less wet in the Central U.S.

El Nino onset is on our doorstep. Due to the historical upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific which represents potential energy to fuel a significant El Nino, rapid El Nino strengthening is likely through Q3/2026 with a likely peak in intensity which could be the strongest on record occurring during Q4/2026. Uncertain is whether a positive Indian Ocean dipole of significance will develop (or not). El Nino is likely to carry well into 2027 with a possible phase change holding off until Q4/2027 at the earliest.