06/12/2020, 1:39 pm EDT

Persistent 2007-19 –NAO Pattern During Summer May Reverse for Summer 2020

During 2007 to 2019 the NAO pattern has been negative throughout the summer season except 2013 and 2018. A +NAO pattern appears to be setting up for summer 2020. Implied is a ridge pattern capable of producing anomalous warmth and possible drought on northern Europe to Western Russia and periodic very hot weather pulses in the Central U.S.
05/25/2020, 10:15 am EDT

Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) AND La Nina Increases Risk of Stronger La Nina Climate AND La Nina Lingering Into Next Year

Evolution of La Nina during negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole suggest that the attendant convection patterns associated with this regime will be stronger and have a more dramatic impact on global La Nina climate. Both strength of La Nina climate anomalies could be stronger and La Nina could linger in 2021.
04/27/2020, 8:59 am EDT

Developing Deep Layer Soil Moisture Deficit and Late Summer Dryness/Heat Caused Southeast Brazil Flash Drought

The synoptic climate details enabling the dry pattern in Southeast Brazil were caused by two regimes…a moist northeast trade wind flow into Northeast Brazil and reaching Central Brazil caused by the negative phase of the Atlantic meridional mode (-AMM) and by the prevailing (dry) land breeze across Southeast Brazil trailing a persistent deep upper trough east of Uruguay.
04/19/2020, 9:49 am EDT

Unique: Very Warm Gulf of Mexico and Tropical North Atlantic Ahead of the 2020 Tropical Cyclone Season

Unique to 2020, the pre-tropical cyclone season sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are unusually warm in both the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin in-between the eastern Caribbean Sea and northwest coast of Africa. Implied is abundant (unprecedented?) upper ocean/surface heating to cause passing tropical cyclones to intensify dramatically (assuming the proper upper air patterns).