A leading contributor to the increased activenes of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone actvity ove rthe past 20 years has been the warming of the North Atlantic basin caused by the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.

After a brief period of moderately intense warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation neutral phase has returned. During the past 2 decades the character of PDO has changed...weaker and shorter duration events where as previous patterns had a tendency to lock into warm or cool phase with intensity.

The 2018-19 El Nino struggled to organize and intensify before dissipating the past couple months. Since the 1999 strong La Nina only 3 ENSO episodes have been intense. During this time the global oceans have warmed significantly. Is the warmer global ocean huring ENSO intensity?

Recent research has shown that projecting future drought risk is more confidently forecast by combining the influence of long-term climate measured by 10-200 CM soil moisture deficits and the effects of recent weather patterns implied in 0-10 CM soil moisture anomalies.