To the north of a blocking high-pressure system stretched west-to-east across southern portions of South America, two cutoff upper-level low-pressure systems have formed. One low is southeast of Brazil and is causing historic rainfall across Brazil. A second upper low is off the West Coast of South America causing the heavy rain pattern to arc westward. The upper-level features are reflected in the regional SSTA pattern. These conditions are likely to last into January causing more excessive rainfall in Brazil.

Climate Impact Company continues to stress recent emergence of warm SSTA regions outside of the tropics commonly referred to as “warm blobs” and their influence on the regional (and hemispheric) climate patterns which are as important as the influence of ENSO. The character of climate patterns associated with “Warm blobs” is slow-moving and therefore more impactful.  

Since 2000 marine heat waves have increased especially since 2010. Most famous is the emergence of the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific in 2013 which not only caused dramatic warming at the surface but also to several hundred feet in depth. Other “warm blobs” east of Australia and New Zealand are routinely monitored for their strength, persistence and influence on weather and climate. Provided is a brief assessment of the current location/intensity of "warm blobs" and the influence on the upper air patterns in each hemisphere.

Due to a combination of warmer than normal SSTA in the middle/northern oceans and a constricted polar ice cap, the East Pacific oscillation (EPO) has become the primary climate index to identify polar vortex patterns which cause could outbreaks into the U.S.