08/06/2023, 11:12 am EDT

Scary Tropical/Subtropical North Atlantic Basin SSTA as The Most Active Part of TC Season Begins

We’ve entered the most active part of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season (after Aug. 1st). For now, the basin is all clear. However, normal to above normal hurricanes/major hurricanes remain in the forecast primarily due to the record warm surface of the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics. The forecast is unique, a potential big year for hurricanes in the face of a developing El Nino climate. Provided are the latest daily SSTA analysis for the Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic, and main development region (MDR) in the outer tropics. The Gulf and MDR are record warm. Given the super warm SST, if the proper environment evolves, the potential for unusually strong hurricanes is high!
07/31/2023, 7:57 am EDT

Solar Maxima, El Nino Climate, and Record Warm Ocean for Winter 2023-24 Ahead

Yet another surprise, likely unknown is ahead for the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere winter. For the first time in recorded history, the combination of an over-achieving solar maxima, El Nino climate, and much warmer than normal ocean surface is likely to drive the winter 2023-24 northern hemisphere climate pattern.
07/23/2023, 3:45 pm EDT

Monitoring The 30-31C/86-87F SST Presence In The North Atlantic Basin

For the first time in the historical record, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index was above normal for a 6-year period (2016-21) averaging 159 which is considerably higher than normal (126). One of the primary contributors to the active period is the much warmer than normal North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature (SST) pattern featuring increased frequency of unusually warm SST of 30-31C (or warmer) which ignites major hurricanes.
07/18/2023, 2:15 pm EDT

Record Warm Global Temperatures Caused by Marine Heat Waves

Increasing attention is given to the recent uptick to large regions of oceanic warming outside of the tropical region. Marine heat waves are present across much of the middle/subtropical latitudes in both hemispheres causing a record warm ocean surface according to the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine. Certainly, the evolution of an increasingly bold El Nino and recent near onset of positive phase Indian Ocean dipole has helped. The oceanic warming in the middle latitudes has caused warming aloft to increase high-pressure ridging to deliver hot weather to populated land masses for mid-summer in the northern hemisphere.