Is there a relationship between summer climate and large areas of wet soil regions during spring? Yes! And the relationship can be profound and demonstrates a residual effect on mid-level troposphere pressure systems elsewhere. Currently, the Great Lakes region is in a historically wet soil moisture regime which continues to intensify. This region will enter the 2026 summer season with soaking wet soil conditions.

The warm season (MAY-SEP) 2026 cooling degree days outlook for selected cities across the PJM Service Area indicates a split (climate) pattern. PJM-West is susceptible to El Nino-fueled cloudiness and wet weather likely to suppress warm season cooling demand.

MJO forcing causes a heavy rain scenario across Northern Argentina/Paraguay and Northeast Brazil the next 7-10 days. However, tropical involvement is diminished in the extended range as Brazil shifts much drier. Dry soils in Southeast Brazil increase the risk of steady late season anomalous heat.

Neutral ENSO continues during early April as the Nino34 SSTA is unchanged at +0.2C. Last week, some warming was observed off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12). The subsurface upper ocean heat is MUCH warmer than normal and intensifying. The NEW Kelvin Wave features ocean temperatures 6-7C warmer than normal extending to just east of 150W and further eastward shifting is likely.