The U.S. Drought Monitor reveals widespread dry-to-drought conditions across the U.S. biased toward the South and Southeast U.S. due to the La Nina climate. About 68% of the U.S. are observing dry-to-drought conditions although D2-D4 severe drought is observed by only 3% of the U.S. Nino34 SSTA forecasts are aggressively indicating El Nino ahead for 2026. If so, the Southern U.S. shifts wetter and long-term drought eases or ends.

The ongoing negative arctic oscillation (-AO) is in-the-face of any significant U.S. warm-up. Overnight, forecasts are trending colder in the 11-15-day period, particularly GFS, as -AO inspires cross-polar flow of arctic chill into the U.S. Consequently, the February 6-12 HDD forecast increases substantially, 23 HDD from 24 hours ago.

The 30-day AO index (Jan. 21-Feb. 19) is projected -3.6 based on recent observations and projections for the 30-day period. The AO index of -3.6 is exceeded only twice as a monthly average in the 1950-2026 climatology: -4.3 (FEB-2010) and -3.8 (JAN-1977). Ongoing -AO (and strengthening -NAO) suggest the current extreme cold may break temporarily and then return.

The projected AO for February is about -2.6 which is historically negative. Similarity was observed in 1985, 1998, 2010, and 2011 when the following February maintained the cold U.S. trough. The modern day -AO analog (2010 and 2021) was slightly less effectively cold. The analogs suggest the East U.S. cold expands westward with time during February.