News
04/07/2023, 9:16 am EDT

Tutorial: Using Mega-cluster Ensemble to Project Great Plains Precipitation

At issue is the Great Plains/Texas drought as mid-meteorological spring approaches. All western and southern Kansas plus the Oklahoma Panhandle are in D4 (“exceptional drought”) classification. To best understand the 15-day outlook, the mega-cluster ensemble is considered to determine rainfall risk in the drought areas.
03/27/2023, 8:50 am EDT

An Update on Marine Heat Wave NEP22A

Marine heat wave NEP22A located north-northeast of Hawaii is budging eastward again. NEP22A is the 2nd longest duration and 4th largest in aerial coverage MHW since satellite monitoring began in 1982. Dynamic models maintain the eastward shift toward the west coast of North America heading into summertime.
03/15/2023, 8:30 am EDT

Strong El Nino/Positive Phase Indian Ocean Dipole Correlate to Europe Summer Drought

The combination of an impressive warm ENSO and positive Indian Ocean dipole is forecast by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology for JUL/AUG/SEP 2023. If so, analogs emphasize a strong upper ridge across Europe returning the dry/hot regime observed last year biased slightly farther eastward.
02/28/2023, 8:23 am EST

Onset of Climate Pattern Change Ahead Including La Nina Demise and ENSO Shift Toward El Nino

A powerful Madden Julian oscillation is in the 15-day forecast by all models. The MJO shifts across the equatorial Pacific to ignite a weather pattern change across the northern hemisphere plus erode what remains of La Nina and point ENSO in the direction of El Nino for mid-year.