Late spring into early summer produces substantial flooding from extreme rains already occurring in Southern Florida and shifting into Texas later this week extending northward to the Midwest U.S. However, areas north and east of these heavy rain zones have the opposite problem likely to last well into the summer season, lack of significant rain and steady anomalous heat casual to increased drought risk from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. By late summer, a shift in tropical rains should ease drought in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

Medium-range forecasts, SSTA trend in the Northeast Pacific and West Atlantic, and soil moisture trend are helping to clarify with certainty where high impact climate zones will set-up well into the summer season.

The ocean surface surrounding Scandinavia is “hot”! Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) range from +4C to near +7C in the Baltic Sea to +2C to +4C west and southwest of Norway. This specific marine heat wave (MHW) is peaking in strength and responsible, in-part, for the historic Southern Germany rains of the past week.

The start of tropical cyclone season is just a few days away and the North Atlantic basin is the warmest on record (+1.06C). The implied upper ocean heat to fuel tropical cyclones is immense. Additionally, the widespread anomalous warmth also indicates sea level rise especially neat the U.S. Coastline.