Research has revealed the influence of early season polar ice expansion and influence on Eurasia snow cover shaping the upper-level trough/ridge pattern that shapes sensible weather. This influence on Eurasia climate will strengthen heading toward the core of the cold season.

Climate Impact Company has updated the remainder of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone seasonal forecast indicating an additional 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 intense hurricane with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 63. The second half of the season projection added to activity so far produces a greatly reduced 2022 seasonal total of 12 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 1 intense hurricane and ACE index of 93.

Week-2 ahead U.S. population weight CDD forecasts have routinely been too hot for most of meteorological summer so far. Speculated is forecast models are hot-biased due to stronger than existing dry soil moisture conditions which produce short-term errors that grow with time. NOAA soil moisture analysis varies from dramatically dry to realistic dry.