The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society released a collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts for 2025 earlier today. The consensus of dynamic (and especially) statistical Nino34 SSTA forecasts is a trend toward a “double dip” La Nina for later this year. Previously, Climate Impact Company issued a Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast indicating a second La Nina later in 2025 somewhat more intense than the 2024-25 version.

Another cold peak is ahead for next week in the U.S. causing natural gas prices to rise. Forecasts are trending colder, and additional price rise is possible. Next week's cold is impressive but not quite as strong as the mid-winter episode.

The Climate Impact Company ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD constructed analog forecasts are updated. The ENSO outlook increasingly favors 2025 as a La Nina year while cool phase PDO continues until a possible phase change early next year.

Since 1979 the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline has produced peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina, most dramatically during late last century with more frequent but less intense peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina in this century. The JAN-25 subsurface cool anomaly was -1.32 and the coolest monthly signature from the 2024-25 cold ENSO episode.