Given the sharp increase in medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts for North America and Europe as meteorological winter 2025-26 arrives a review of 30-day skill scores using anomaly correlation is provided. For North America, as observed throughout most of 2025, AIFS ENS and ECM ENS are the top 2 forecast models. Anomaly correlation skill scores in the 0.85 range for the 6-to-10-day period are considered good too very good with a similar reliability near 0.70 in the 11-15-day period.

The North Atlantic basin 2025 tropical cyclone season featured extremes including very quiet and very noisy periods with no U.S. hurricane landfall(s). The major hurricanes all tracked northward through the west-central North Atlantic. Next year, El Nino may be with us although activity is likely similar in numbers to this year.

The latest Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast for meteorological summer 2025-26 has changed. The outlook is drier across East Australia and hotter across Southeast/South-central Australia. The anomalous heat and dryness in this region indicate expanding drought is likely.

During November, La Nina is weak but established with both oceanic and atmospheric characteristics. The Nino34 SSTA cools to -0.8C, the strongest (cool) signature of this episode. The southern oscillation index shifted to (mostly) strong positive phase during November, indicating a La Nina atmosphere has formed. The subsurface cool fuel to maintain La Nina is weak-to-moderate and slightly less cool during the past 1-2 weeks.