05/10/2023, 8:29 am EDT

Warm and Cool Regional SSTA and Their Correlation to “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (and Trough)” Locations

A semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge formed in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and extended to Western North America centered on the 2013-16 period. The upper ridge was well-correlated to the “warm blob” of surface and deep layer ocean water in the Northeast Pacific at that time. The “warm blob” was an example of a marine heat wave (MHW) and the attendant upper air pattern became known as the “ridiculously resilient ridge” (RRR) infamous for accelerating the long-term California drought.
04/30/2023, 11:21 am EDT

El Nino, Marine Heat Waves, and July 2023 Northern Hemisphere Climate Risks

Evolving El Nino coupled with marine heat waves suggest the warmest global ocean temperatures on record are ahead for 2023. As of March, global SSTA were the 3rd warmest in 174 years. Certainly, the super warm global SSTA will influence climate patterns. Of leading interest is where drought areas emerge during the northern hemisphere summer. Right now, concern areas are tropical SSTA-driven drought in Western Indonesia and possibly India while MHW-driven drought returns to Europe and the U.S.
04/11/2023, 9:10 am EDT

Great Plains Drought Resiliency Redeveloping?

From North Dakota to Kansas, 91% of that stretch was in drought at the beginning of the year. That number lowers to 77% in early April. In the Oklahoma to Texas stretch, 68% of that region was in drought on the 1st of January lowering to 52% in early April. So…aerial coverage of drought has lowered through Q1/2023. However, intense D3/D4 drought remains prominent in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. The precipitation outlooks indicate worsening conditions are possible over the next 6 weeks.