Upper ocean heat observations for June 2026 reveal record warmth in the equatorial Pacific region with waters east of the Dateline getting close to the record observed during the all-time strongest El Nino in 1997. Fuel to accelerate El Nino 2026-27 to record levels is clearly present.

Upper ocean heat has reached a second peak and will approach the all-time record in July previously produced during the 1997 El Nino. The reaction is oceanic El Nino warming reaching strong intensity with atmospheric El Nino (also) intensifying rapidly.

Climate Impact Company issues an ALERT for accelerating dry soil in the Western Corn Belt during the 16-30-day period, also the peak hottest time of summer climatologically. ECM and AI GC differ on whether hot weather is present, but each forecast agrees on dryness.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is vividly displayed in daily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) analysis centered south of Greenland and extending southwestward while compensating marine heatwaves (MHW) are present off the Europe West Coast, record warm in the Mediterranean Sea, with additional MHW’s in the Norwegian Sea and North Sea to Baltic Sea. The SSTA regime described is semi-permanent since 2015 and well-correlated to the tendency for amplified upper-level high pressure ridge areas during summertime.