AI-driven weather forecast models show strong achievement in reducing the amount of time required to create a weather forecast, as the models are not driven by the computationally demanding fundamental equations of the atmosphere like NWP. However, like NWP, weather forecasts generated by AI-driven models struggle with forecast accuracy at longer lead times, due to the iterative approach of weather forecasting to atmospheric variables that are chaotic and stochastic. 

A comparison between the regional SSTA-based Climate Impact Company constructed analog 500 MB forecast for the northern hemisphere for January 2024 with the ECMWF outlook reveals generally similar characteristics for mid-winter.

Early meteorological summer is usually drier than normal across Eastern Australia when El Nino is present. However, the past 30 days have featured robust wet anomalies across the eastern third of the continent in contrast with very dry weather of the last 3 El Nino years for the same period in 2015, 2009, and 2002. Rainfall forecasts through the remainder of December maintain the very wet East Australia pattern. Why is the unexpected rainfall occurring?

There is a likelihood for a complete reversal in global climate patterns from what they are now for later 2024. The potential for a long-term change in the ENSO cycle is emerging on the horizon.