The 2016-24 active period for tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin is forecast to continue in 2025. During the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season similar climate conditions are forecast including neutral ENSO shifting back to La Nina and a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin. The preliminary seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecast for the 2025 season indicates 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes plus the 6th highest ACE index (193) on record. The risk of a dangerous season in the Gulf of Mexico is >50 percent while analogs indicate mixed risk for the U.S. East Coast.

Meteorological autumn (SEP/OCT/NOV 2024) the warmest on record including record warmth for Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin plus Maine. Each of the 48 contiguous states observed above too much above normal temperature.

Stratospheric warming emerges over Siberia as calendar-winter arrives. The risk of arctic air generation at ground level increases dramatically in this region. In North America, the stratosphere is cold and supports anomalous warmth at ground level for Canada and the U.S. in 16 days. However, once we’re into January, ECMWF continues to indicate an emerging polar vortex which is steadily broadening and strengthening.

The persistent Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) and causal westerly wind burst (WWB) has created a scenario where latent heat release to the upper atmosphere and poleward via a Rossby Wave is causing forecast models to indicate a stratospheric warming event across Northeast Asia in the 11-15-day period increasing strength as day 15 arrives. The stratospheric warming event could trigger an arctic air mass formation across Eurasia late in December if this feature is well organized.