The immense Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave is expanding eastward which supports positioning of the upper-level high pressure ridge shifting eastward as indicated by the CFS V2 week 2-4 outlook.

A glimpse at historical climate pattern across North America, Europe, South America, and Australia for DEC/JAN/FEB during strong El Nino is reviewed. Only 2 strong El Nino’s have occurred during the past 2 years. The most recent (2015-16) is likely more representative of DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 due to the occurrence of strong El Nino during accelerated global oceanic warming.

A westerly wind burst has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean stretching eastward past the Dateline in the wake of a moderate-to-strong Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode. The MJO event has caused significant lowering of pressure in the tropical East Pacific to cause an exceptionally strong negative phase of the southern oscillation index to develop (Fig. 3). The emerging -SOI regime is an indicator that an El Nino climate has arrived and is developing rapidly.

Canadian spring wheat was sharply affected by drought in the southwest/south sector, but recent rains have been substantial increasing wet soil concerns, especially in the eastern half of the crop area. The U.S. spring wheat area is generally OK although weather/soil conditions is variable and require careful monitoring. U.S. Corn is ahead of schedule while winter wheat crop ratings are poor due to drought and late season freezes although recently gaining some rainfall.