Slightly more than 25% of the months of this century have produced an El Nino climate as of mid-2026, about 2/3 the amount observed 1965-95. Consequently, ENSO is a leading contributor to periods of dry climate across the U.S. July 2026 is the 3rd time this century, D1-D4 drought conditions eclipsed 60% of the U.S.

Leading into August, sharp regional SSTA conditions support a semi-permanent trough near and southwestward the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) and south-southeast from the Gulf of Alaska Cool Pool. Extending northeastward across the Southwest U.S. toward Hudson Bay from the immense marine heatwave (MHW) off the Southwest Coast of North America is a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge.

At 8AM EDT, Tropical Depression 2 was located at 28,6N/85.6W or about 110 miles south of Panama City, FL moving northwest at 3 mph with top wind near 35 mph and surface pressure 1006 MB. Convection surrounding TD 2 is disorganized but increasing.

The projected bas 18C cooling degree days for London/Heathrow and Paris/Orly for meteorological summer 2026 is the hottest in the 1980-2026 climatology.