During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place.

Although forecast models vary and consider possible improvement in U.S. soil moisture by late calendar spring, the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) favors an expansive dry-to-drought pattern for both the West and Central U.S. Forecast confidence is near to above normal on weakening drought risk across the eastern third of the nation and strengthening drought across the West U.S. to Texas. However, forecast confidence is near to below average for the Central U.S. dry outlook.

Over the weekend, rainfall forecasts have shifted drier in the Great Plains through 10 days and possibly the 11-15-day period. Anomalous warmth increases. Eastern Europe to the Black Sea region and southward to the Persian Gulf have shifted wetter and cooler in the medium range.

An El Nino climate is projected to develop during the second half of 2026 and continue into early 2027 across South America. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecasts for the next 4 seasons are based on the evolution of an El Nino climate plus influences on climate from the tropical South Atlantic SSTA regime and tendency for strong marine heatwaves off each coast.