The northern hemisphere sea ice extent ranks 2nd lowest on record for the September 2020. The only year in which northern hemisphere sea ice was less abundant was 2012. The lack of sea ice does not mean that winter ahead will be warm.

Late season heat in Iowa last week coupled with deep layer soil moisture deficit over the northern state and widespread soil moisture deficts in the shallow soil moisture produced a borderline flash drought episode. Deep layer soil moisture deficits are spread across the North-central U.S., western Great Plains and Southeast U.S. Fortunately, early autumn cool weather and likely a wet regime in the Southeast eases additional flash drought risk.

La Nina climate is most profound during the cool season. In 2020 a moderate La Nina is forecast to begin in late quarter 3. Since the mid-to-late 1990’s three separate weak-to-moderate La Nina episodes have occurred: 2000, 2007 and 2016. A simple average climate pattern of those 3 analog years for SEP/OCT and NOV/DEC is issued for North America, Europe, South America and Australia.