Climate Impact Company has revised the 2026 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast LOWER to 9 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The ACE index forecast is 50. The CIC forecast is similar with the Colorado State University downward revision. ECMWF rainfall probability forecasts indicate this year’s activity is heavily biased toward the subtropics with very limited deep tropics development. The outlook is revised lower due to the evolving super El Nino and the suppressing effects of El Nino on tropical cyclone development.

The daily Nino12 SSTA is a buoyantly warm +4.04C which is frighteningly impressive! Weekly Nino12 SSTA exceeding +4.0C occurred only once, during the 1982-83 El Nino when +4.5 was observed in late June 1983 during the mature phase of that El Nino episode. Entering August, 2026-27 El Nino is in its infancy.

U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis continues to reveal torrid drought across much of the U.S. The 15-day SPP forecast is very dry and encourages evolving hot weather.

Upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is the warmest on record with resurgent warming observed in recent weeks. Subsurface temperature anomaly analysis reveals +10C at 100-meter depth, easily the warmest on record.