Climate Impact Company refers to El Nino intensity as “strong” to “super” intensity due to relative Nino34 SSTA stuck at +1.8C and conventional Nino34 SSTA just above the +2.5C super El Nino threshold. However, without question, due to immense subsurface heating in the equatorial East Pacific, potential for the strongest El Nino on record later this year remains indicated.

Evolution of serious drought across Northern Brazil while flooding rainfall is likely across Southeast Brazil is indicated by the spring 2026 season forecast according to ECMWF.

Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and western North Atlantic basin are moderately warmer than normal with little recent change. In the tropics, SSTA is near normal in the central basin with sharp warming off the West Africa Coast. Upper ocean heat in the deep tropics is near normal given the 2013-25 available climatology. Interestingly, upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico has plummeted to lowest levels on record given the 2013-25 climatology.

The most recent ECMWF relative Nino34 SSTA index forecast maintains a projection of record-strength El Nino for late 2026 into early 2027. The NCEP CFS V2 forecast also projects record setting +3.5 for Nino34 SSTA during late 2026.