Hurricane Lowell moves north, to just west of Kauai tonight, and weakens slowly to a tropical storm while turning westward later this week while Tropical Storm Marie drifts northwestward staying well west of California. Additional tropical systems are possible in the East Pacific this week. The latent heat release from the attendant convection of each system causes the high-pressure system to the north to amplify this week and shift slightly eastward in the 6-10-day-period maintaining strength as additional latent heat from tropical/subtropical convection to the south continues.

The Climate Impact Company winter 2026-27 outlook for Europe and Western Russia is milder than normal with record warmth possible in December. The warm SSTA regimes surrounding Europe, across much of the North Atlantic basin, and combined with Super El Nino are the catalyst to the mild outlook.

Tropical Disturbance EP95 drifts northward across the record-strength marine heatwave off the Southwest Coast of North America enabling the system to carry attendant tropical moisture farther north than usual potentially leading to over-achieving flooding rainfall in Southern California.

The Climate Impact Company INITIAL Winter 2026-27 Outlook is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog heavily weighting past strong El Nino events. El Nino 2026-27 has a 70% chance of breaking the record for strongest warm ENSO event on record.