The ocean surface off the Northeast Corridor Coast has cooled significantly during the past 2 weeks. Much of the cooling is due to a countering (to the Gulf Stream) cold current flowing southwestward from just off Newfoundland. The ocean surface is several to 6C cooler than normal in this cool zone, most vividly indicated off the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast.

A warmer (or cooler) than normal national climate DOES NOT necessarily equate to U.S. cooling demand. National CDD observations and forecasts are biased hotter or cooler by BOTH the temperature pattern and the population of the areas affected. Usually, anomalous heat in the PJM sector affects high national cooling demand (CDD’s) most effectively. Climate Impact Company initializes the U.S. 6-Week CDD Scorecard today.

The Canadian Meteorological Center indicates an evolving fire risk across Western Canada during June with a well above normal fire risk for Southwest Canada by July reaching all Southwest and Central Canada (plus Northwest U.S.) during August.

ENSO is in neutral phase as mid-year approaches. The outlook for later this year is uncertain. In fact, the latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast reveals a range of ENSO phase possibilities ranging from strong El Nino to strong La Nina or continuation of neutral phase for the last third of 2025.