Climate Impact Company issues an ALERT for accelerating dry soil in the Western Corn Belt during the 16-30-day period, also the peak hottest time of summer climatologically. ECM and AI GC differ on whether hot weather is present, but each forecast agrees on dryness.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is vividly displayed in daily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) analysis centered south of Greenland and extending southwestward while compensating marine heatwaves (MHW) are present off the Europe West Coast, record warm in the Mediterranean Sea, with additional MHW’s in the Norwegian Sea and North Sea to Baltic Sea. The SSTA regime described is semi-permanent since 2015 and well-correlated to the tendency for amplified upper-level high pressure ridge areas during summertime.

Earlier this month, record warm temperatures dominated parts of Antarctic located due south of the southern tip of Argentina. Esperanza Base located on the northern tip of the Trinity Peninsula observed a winter record 15.4C on June 6th. Other research stations observed similar record warmth and for nearly 3 straight weeks, daily maximum temperatures in this region stayed above 32F causing extreme melting leaving the mountain bases of the Collins Glacier with bare ground. However, the real meteorological story across Antarctica is not the record warmth due south of Argentina, but the ferocious cold resting on the remainder of the continent.

Emergence of the strong El Nino climate is seen in the evolution of strong positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) by late JUN/early JUL. +GLAAM is characteristic of a strong El Nino climate as westerlies aloft in the middle latitudes increase due to the interaction between increasing El Nino convection in the deep tropics and the dynamic forcing on mid-latitude upper airflow. The global wind oscillation (GWO) forecast indicates most of the forcing is in the eastern hemisphere (phase_5, phase_6, and phase_7).