The MJO outlook indicates a potential eastward shift during the last third of September reaching phase_1 or possibly phase_2 by late month. If MJO shifts east and reaches phase_2, support for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity increases significantly.

The initial U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2026-27 cold season reveals a mild regime with each month forecast below the 10-year/30-year climatology. Regionally, all zones are warmer than normal for NOV-26 to MAR-27 except near the 10-year normal for Texas.

The dramatic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific ALSO means sharp sea level rise. Current NOAA analysis reveals the ocean rise in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the recent oceanic warming is about 14 inches. The Kelvin Wave causing the ocean rise is “fanning” northward and will reach waters off the California Coast during the month of September raising sea level from about 6 inches above normal (now) to 12-13 inches above normal later this month. The ocean rise is accompanied by additional warming.

Summer 2026 was the hottest on record in the 1895-2026 U.S. climatology. Included were the hottest summer on record for Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. All 48 contiguous states were warmer than normal except Indiana. MUCH ABOVE normal to RECORD warm was observed in 27 states. The national rainfall ranking was in the driest third during the 132-year history. Regional differences were vast ranking from top ten driest on record in Oregon and California plus South Carolina while the entire Ohio Valley was MUCH WETTER than normal.