04/09/2024, 2:39 pm EDT

Surprisingly, April ACE Forecasts are not that Accurate

Surprisingly, early April accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) forecasts for the following tropical cyclone season issued by Colorado State University have limited skill. The average error during the 2007-2023 period is 45. Of the 17 years since seasonal ACE forecasts were generated, 6 years were (well) under-forecast, 5 years were (well) over-forecast, and 6 were reasonable (within 30).
03/20/2024, 3:58 pm EDT

The March 2024 Global Marine Heat Wave Discussion and Outlook

During the past decade marine heat waves (MHW) have dramatically increased their presence, aerial coverage, and duration poleward of the deep tropics in both hemispheres. The influence on climate is dramatic and warrants application of a 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) both to generating seasonal forecasts and explaining climate regime observations on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. In February 2024, MHW’s occupied 38% of the global oceans ranking 5th during all months since 1991 according to NOAA.
03/18/2024, 8:15 am EDT

Verification of the Summer 2023-24 Climate across South America

Provided is an explanation of the primary climate drivers of the just-completed meteorological summer climate pattern across South America. Emphasized is the influence of the (record warm) SSTA pattern in the tropics on the intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the latent heat release form the attendant convection leading to subtropical high pressure in the subtropical to mid-latitudes across South America.
03/14/2024, 8:22 am EDT

Areas Susceptible for Drought during 2024 Warm Season

Based on a constructed analog which identifies: 1.) The evolution of a warming mid-latitude ocean during the past 10 years, 2.) An enhanced warming of the mid-latitude oceans during the past 5 years, and 3.) Decelerating El Nino to La Nina climate, a projection of 500 MB anomalies and attendant soil moisture conditions for Western Russia and the U.S. is provided.