A westerly wind burst has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean stretching eastward past the Dateline in the wake of a moderate-to-strong Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode. The MJO event has caused significant lowering of pressure in the tropical East Pacific to cause an exceptionally strong negative phase of the southern oscillation index to develop (Fig. 3). The emerging -SOI regime is an indicator that an El Nino climate has arrived and is developing rapidly.

Canadian spring wheat was sharply affected by drought in the southwest/south sector, but recent rains have been substantial increasing wet soil concerns, especially in the eastern half of the crop area. The U.S. spring wheat area is generally OK although weather/soil conditions is variable and require careful monitoring. U.S. Corn is ahead of schedule while winter wheat crop ratings are poor due to drought and late season freezes although recently gaining some rainfall.

The next 2-3 days will feature an unusually windy, chilly, and rainy scenario across New England and particularly the coast fueled in part by the cold bias on the atmosphere by cooler than normal waters off the Northeast Coast provided by the Labrador Current extending southwestward from the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) south of Greenland.

Developing El Nino usually produces lack of trade winds or a reversal to westerly wind direction in the equatorial central/east Pacific Ocean. However, the expected trade wind regime is not present. In fact, in early June, GFS projects a swath of moderate trade winds in the Nino4/Nino34 regions.