12/17/2023, 12:17 pm EST

Why Is Eastern Australia Wet During The 2023 El Nino?

Early meteorological summer is usually drier than normal across Eastern Australia when El Nino is present. However, the past 30 days have featured robust wet anomalies across the eastern third of the continent in contrast with very dry weather of the last 3 El Nino years for the same period in 2015, 2009, and 2002. Rainfall forecasts through the remainder of December maintain the very wet East Australia pattern. Why is the unexpected rainfall occurring?
12/12/2023, 6:44 am EST

El Nino to La Nina in 2024, What to Expect for DEC/JAN/FEB 2024-25

Of interest, is the reasonable certainty by many dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models that La Nina will replace the current El Nino during the last third of 2024. Consequently, a brief glimpse as to what to expect for winter 2024-25 temperature patterns in North America and Europe plus rainfall patterns for summer 2024-25 in South America and Australia is reviewed.
11/30/2023, 1:35 pm EST

Climate Impact Company Research: Spot Check Comparing Graph Cast AI 10-Day Forecast with ECM and GFS

A 10-day forecast of synoptic features across the U.S. valid 7PM EST on Monday November 27th was performed using a comparison between GFS, ECM, and Graph Cast AI-generated models. The results were a near perfect forecast by Graph Cast while GFS was out-of-phase with an Upper Midwest storm and attendant cold front while ECM was much too stormy across the Southern States.