U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis continues to reveal torrid drought across much of the U.S. The 15-day SPP forecast is very dry and encourages evolving hot weather.

Upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is the warmest on record with resurgent warming observed in recent weeks. Subsurface temperature anomaly analysis reveals +10C at 100-meter depth, easily the warmest on record.

Slightly more than 25% of the months of this century have produced an El Nino climate as of mid-2026, about 2/3 the amount observed 1965-95. Consequently, ENSO is a leading contributor to periods of dry climate across the U.S. July 2026 is the 3rd time this century, D1-D4 drought conditions eclipsed 60% of the U.S.

Leading into August, sharp regional SSTA conditions support a semi-permanent trough near and southwestward the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) and south-southeast from the Gulf of Alaska Cool Pool. Extending northeastward across the Southwest U.S. toward Hudson Bay from the immense marine heatwave (MHW) off the Southwest Coast of North America is a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge.