Medium-range forecasts, SSTA trend in the Northeast Pacific and West Atlantic, and soil moisture trend are helping to clarify with certainty where high impact climate zones will set-up well into the summer season.

The ocean surface surrounding Scandinavia is “hot”! Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) range from +4C to near +7C in the Baltic Sea to +2C to +4C west and southwest of Norway. This specific marine heat wave (MHW) is peaking in strength and responsible, in-part, for the historic Southern Germany rains of the past week.

The start of tropical cyclone season is just a few days away and the North Atlantic basin is the warmest on record (+1.06C). The implied upper ocean heat to fuel tropical cyclones is immense. Additionally, the widespread anomalous warmth also indicates sea level rise especially neat the U.S. Coastline.

The daily North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is +0.94C and implies the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is similar and therefore easily a record warm value for May. The North Atlantic basin has warmed 0.23C during the past 7 days. A primary contributor is the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index located across the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes. The daily TNA index is +1.46C maintaining the record warm signature in this part of the outer tropical North Atlantic basin.