Beginning in 2020, a large area of low-pressure formed in the Amundsen Sea off the Antarctic Coast well southwest of South America. The upper trough has intensified and persisted through 2022 so far. There is correlation between the presence of this upper trough and winter cold risk in South America.

The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic seasonal activity forecast has increased slightly since the initial projection one month ago. The number of tropical storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes each increases by a count of 1 to 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. The ACE index increases from 135 to 149. The increase in activity is due to a more confident La Nina climate forecast.

Heavy convection south and southeast of India building the past several months and likely related to the Madden Julian oscillation released latent heat poleward causing a warming of the atmosphere across South-central Asia. The result is a titanic upper-level high-pressure ridge leading to historic heat across India (and westward to Iran/Iraq).