Brazil rainfall forecasts by all operational models have been notoriously too wet during the summer season. However, support for a wet 15-day outlook across much of Brazil has synoptic scale weather support and seems reasonable. The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS which has been competitive with GFS and ECM is somewhat drier.

The MJO shift through the eastern Indian Ocean tropics to north of Australia and West Pacific tropics is indicated by the MJO 115-day forecast phase_3, phase_4, and phase_5. When MJO enters the phases listed during mid-winter a milder Pacific maritime influence is generated on U.S. climate.

The cold weather forecast for early to middle of next week across ERCOT is stronger. Currently, the consensus of all forecast models yields a 3-day event of <32F in Houston with coldest morning at 24F on Jan. 21. By comparison, cold air events Uri (Feb. 14-20, 2021) and Elliot (Dec. 21-26, 2022) were stronger and longer in duration.

The warmest year on record for the U.S. was 2024. All states were either MUCH ABOVE normal or RECORD warm. All-time records were observed in 18 states from Texas/Oklahoma to the Upper Midwest/Northeast U.S. The year of 2024 ranked 19th wettest on record in the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal precipitation was observed in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Rhode Island with ABOVE normal precipitation occurring in 18 states.