The synoptic climate details enabling the dry pattern in Southeast Brazil were caused by two regimes…a moist northeast trade wind flow into Northeast Brazil and reaching Central Brazil caused by the negative phase of the Atlantic meridional mode (-AMM) and by the prevailing (dry) land breeze across Southeast Brazil trailing a persistent deep upper trough east of Uruguay.

The influence on climate of large areas of warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures is an increasing trend. A current example is the historical warm anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico caused by an early 2020 strong subtropical ridge which has lead to coastal Gulf drought while inland excessive rain and flooding has occurred. The warm ocean surface and associated sea level rise raise an eyebrow as to potential damage caused by what is expected to be an active tropical cyclone season for summer into early autumn ahead.

Current soil moisture conditions across the Central and East U.S. are similar to last year at this time…wettest on record. Soil moisture is the result of the long-term climate therefore short-term climate predictions can use past precipitation patterns causing similarly wet soils to project the season ahead anomalous precipitation.