Earlier this week, Climate Impact Company updated the month 1-4 ahead outlook. Indicated was a wetter trend in the East/Southeast and drier/hotter trend in the West. Today's NOAA/CPC matches that sentiment. The East/Southeast should be prepared for flooding rains and increased risk of coastal tropical cyclone risk while the Northwest/West U.S. is hot and dry and headed for a hostile fire season later this summer.

The Nino34 SSTA is exactly normal (again) as meteorological summer arrives in the northern hemisphere. The APR/MAY 2025 multivariate ENSO index (MEI) was steady at -0.4. While oceanic ENSO is exactly neutral, atmospheric ENSO is borderline La Nina. In the subsurface, there is no change in the upper ocean heat anomalies which are slightly warm during recent weeks. A collection of operational Nino34 SSTA forecasts reveal a tendency toward weak La Nina for later this year.

-GLAAM has been common since the middle of last February. -GLAAM is present when mid-latitude jet stream flow is slower than normal increasing the risk of longwave trough presence and attendant storminess. Interestingly, the persistent -GLAAM produced widespread wet soil moisture changes around the northern hemisphere during meteorological spring.

The just-issued ECMWF “monthlies” aggressively forecasts consistent anomalous dry and hot climate across the central and northern Great Plains and much of the Canadian Prairies for July through September. The model shifts wet weather risk to the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico Coast leaving high pressure across the North-central States. The high-pressure location is also inspired by a tendency for monsoon thunderstorm activity across the Southwest U.S.