08/17/2020, 10:07 am EDT

Only 2 Hurricanes So Far in North Atlantic. Can 10+ Still Occur As Seasonal Forecasts Indicate?

So far the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season has yielded 11 tropical storms which is certainly above normal for middle August. However, only 2 minimal hurricanes so far lags behind the normal amount. Seasonal forecasts by Climate Impact Company, Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk U.K. and NOAA indicate near if not more than 10 hurricanes of which 3-6 could become major hurricanes. Can that level of activity still happen?
07/28/2020, 8:14 pm EDT

Modern-day La Nina Climatology for SEP/OCT Plus NOV/DEC

La Nina climate is most profound during the cool season. In 2020 a moderate La Nina is forecast to begin in late quarter 3. Since the mid-to-late 1990’s three separate weak-to-moderate La Nina episodes have occurred: 2000, 2007 and 2016. A simple average climate pattern of those 3 analog years for SEP/OCT and NOV/DEC is issued for North America, Europe, South America and Australia.
07/12/2020, 11:26 am EDT

Why The Tropics Should Become More Active Later July

Research (AMS/Journal of Climate 2/15/18) has shown one of the key predictors of increased North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since 1995 is the increased mid-atmospheric relative humidity at the onset of tropical cyclone season. Right now mid-atmospheric RH is buoyant in the Bahamas and especially the main development region for North Atlantic hurricanes to the east of the Caribbean Sea. Once the Saharan dust clouds fade (possibly beginning later this week) an uptick in deep tropics systems should emerge.
07/10/2020, 5:33 pm EDT

A Key Predictor of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

A key climate diagnostic identifying tropical cyclone potential across the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin at early onset of the season is the relative humidity or available moisture in the middle atmosphere. Above to much above normal available moisture, common during the past 25 years of seasonal uptick in North Atlantic activity signals above normal activity ahead. The early 2020 season available moisture is buoyant across the Gulf of Mexico and outer tropical basin signaling an active season ahead!