During the next 2 weeks prohibitive precipitation amount is forecast across the West U.S. The Canadian Ensemble indicates large areas of >12 in. of liquid precipitation centered on northwest California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Conservative estimates range to >20- in. of water in favored areas of these two locations.

The strengthening “warm blob” of SSTA to the east of Argentina is well-correlated to anomalous high-pressure ridging aloft. At times, that high-pressure influence causes dryness and anomalous heat in Argentina likely to expand northward into Southern Brazil during the summer season. To compensate for the upper ridge, a wet low-pressure trough (correlated to slightly cool SSTA east of Brazil) is also likely to persist and cause a wet pattern for north and east portions of Brazil into the summer 2022-23 season.