Currently, the Indian Ocean dipole is in weak positive phase. The western basin is 0.32C warmer than the eastern basin identifying the +IOD regime. The IOD trend of recent weeks is to drift into the weak positive phase. The IOD forecast was a shift into the negative phase for the last third of 2024. Due to the recent rewarming of the western tropical North Atlantic, the -IOD forecast remains, but is generally weaker and not all models project -IOD.

Cooling of the equatorial Atlantic has pushed the ITCZ farther north and into the faster than normal trade wind belt. Saharan Dust has shifted westward through the trade wind belt. These conditions are preventing tropical cyclone activity. Due to these conditions, the western North Atlantic basin becomes the most favored location for tropical cyclone development.