Continuing along the lines of using climate change as a tool to predict climate (versus just as an explanation of a recent climate extreme) lets take a look at wintertime precipitation patterns across the U.S. during El Nino since the epic 1997-98 episode as described by Dr. Olivia Kellner.

A tendency toward consolidation of anomalous warmth in both the surface and subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean near and just east of the Dateline implies El Nino Modoki may be ahead for northern hemisphere winter 2018-19. Plentiful subsurface ocean warmth (also) indicates a conventional El Nino may evolve in 2019.

Well-known is the atmospheric warming of the past 2-3 decades due to rapid increase in CO2 emissions into the global atmosphere. A relatively new symptom of this warming has emerged with regularity in recent years. Frequency of climate extremes whether drought or flooding, hot or cold is increasing.

The JUN/JUL 2018 quasi-biennial oscillation index was the strongest negative observations in the 1948-2018 historical record. There are potential implications to the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season and winter ahead.