A semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge formed in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and extended to Western North America centered on the 2013-16 period. The upper ridge was well-correlated to the “warm blob” of surface and deep layer ocean water in the Northeast Pacific at that time. The “warm blob” was an example of a marine heat wave (MHW) and the attendant upper air pattern became known as the “ridiculously resilient ridge” (RRR) infamous for accelerating the long-term California drought.

Evolving El Nino coupled with marine heat waves suggest the warmest global ocean temperatures on record are ahead for 2023. As of March, global SSTA were the 3rd warmest in 174 years. Certainly, the super warm global SSTA will influence climate patterns. Of leading interest is where drought areas emerge during the northern hemisphere summer. Right now, concern areas are tropical SSTA-driven drought in Western Indonesia and possibly India while MHW-driven drought returns to Europe and the U.S.

The late April 2023 snow cover across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest is rare but not unprecedented. Since 1998 (when satellite snow cover is easily attainable) late April significant snow cover across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2022.

From North Dakota to Kansas, 91% of that stretch was in drought at the beginning of the year. That number lowers to 77% in early April. In the Oklahoma to Texas stretch, 68% of that region was in drought on the 1st of January lowering to 52% in early April. So…aerial coverage of drought has lowered through Q1/2023. However, intense D3/D4 drought remains prominent in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. The precipitation outlooks indicate worsening conditions are possible over the next 6 weeks.