El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) is often the most relied upon climate signal to project seasonal climate patterns all around the globe. ENSO is certainly important especially when stronger El Nino or La Nina are present. However, regional sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), northeast Pacific “warm blob” and North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) are increasingly relevant to generating climate forecasts.

Due to implications of potential flash drought in the Great Lakes/eastern Ohio Valley to Northeast U.S. by the Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) Climate Impact Company is issuing a drought watch for the northeast quadrant of the U.S.

Predicting the onset, severity, and duration of drought remains a challenge due to the number of interconnected variables that contribute to drought evolution and recovery (e.g., soil moisture, soil type, vegetation, land-use, topography, antecedent vegetative state/stress levels, and atmospheric circulation).  The interactions among these variables span spatial and temporal scales, increasing the complexity of drought prediction.

During the just-ending northern hemisphere winter the ocean surface east of New England has rocketed to 11-13F warmer than normal in some locations. The warming - very persistent in this location the past 7-8 years - is part of a weakening Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current which is slowing the transport of warm Gulf Stream Water toward Europe. Instead waters are warming (and rising) off the Northeast U.S. Coast. Blocking the warm water transport of the Gulf Stream is the North Atlantic Warm Hole south-southeast of Greenland. Climate Impact Company Research Scientist Olivia Kellner reviews the AMOC and NAWH.